| ID | 153325 |
| Title Proper | Two kinds of catastrophe |
| Other Title Information | nuclear escalation and protracted war in Asia |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Rovner, Joshua |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | China’s expanding strength and ambition may foreshadow a violent conflict with the United States. I describe two scenarios about how such a conflict would unfold. The article begins by examining the prospects for nuclear escalation, drawing on theories about politics, psychology, and inadvertent escalation. It then examines the prospects for protracted conventional war, a scenario that has received far less attention. I present a new theory of protraction based on technology, geography, and domestic politics. After assessing the logic of both scenarios against a hypothetical US–China conflict, I discuss which is more likely. The conclusion points to a sobering trade-off: efforts to avoid nuclear catastrophe increase the chance of a long and grueling fight. |
| `In' analytical Note | Journal of Strategic Studies Vol. 40, No.5; Aug 2017: p.696-730 |
| Journal Source | Journal of Strategic Studies Vol: 40 No 5 |
| Key Words | United States ; China ; Protracted War ; Nuclear Escalation |