| ID | 153357 |
| Title Proper | End of a caliphate |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Jones, Seth G ; Dobbins, James ; James Dobbins Seth G. Jones |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | From its peak in late 2014, the so-called Islamic State (also known as ISIS or ISIL) has steadily lost territory and population. As an actual – if unrecognised – state, it is on the verge of extinction. Mosul, its last major stronghold in Iraq, is nearly cleared. Raqqa, its capital in Syria, is surrounded and awaiting an assault. The trend lines are stark. By early 2017, according to our estimates, ISIS controlled approximately 45,377 square kilometres and roughly 2.5 million people in Syria and Iraq. Compared to autumn 2014, these numbers represented a 56% decline in Syria and an 83% decline in Iraq in terms of the Islamic State’s control of people. In Egypt, Libya, Afghanistan and Nigeria, ISIS controlled a combined 7,323km2 and 497,420 people by early 2017, representing a 75% drop in its control of people in Nigeria, nearly 100% in Libya and 87% in Afghanistan. In Egypt, ISIS operates in only a tiny stretch of the Sinai.1 Polling data also indicates declining support across the Muslim world for ISIS and its ideology. |
| `In' analytical Note | Survival : the IISS Quarterly Vol. 59, No.3; Jun-Jul 2017: p.55-72 |
| Journal Source | Survival Vol: 59 No 3 |
| Key Words | Terrorism ; Iraq ; Middle East ; Syria ; Islamic State |