| ID | 156583 |
| Title Proper | Hard constraints on a Chinese nuclear breakout |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Logan, David C |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Arguments about China's nuclear-modernization program and its implications for US nuclear policy rest on a fundamental misunderstanding. American experts have resurrected fears of a Chinese nuclear “breakout”—defined here as either development of a nuclear-warfighting capability or a significant and rapid increase in the scale of China's nuclear arsenal—to justify significant changes to US nuclear policies. In addition to the “soft” political constraints on China's nuclear arsenal, Beijing also faces a number of “hard” technical constraints, especially on a “sprint to parity” with the United States and Russia. A Chinese nuclear breakout would require significant changes to China's nuclear infrastructure that are likely to be highly detectable. The United States, while being vigilant for indications of a future Chinese nuclear breakout, should also adopt policies that decrease the likelihood of such changes. |
| `In' analytical Note | Nonproliferation Review Vol. 24, No.1-2; Feb-Mar 2017: p.13-30 |
| Journal Source | Nonproliferation Review Vol: 24 No 1-2 |
| Key Words | Nuclear testing ; Fissile material ; Plutonium ; Deterrence ; Missiles ; China |