| ID | 157366 |
| Title Proper | External threat and alliance formation |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Johnson , Jesse C |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Scholars generally believe that external threats drive military alliances. However, existing statistical studies of alliance formation fail to find a consistent relationship between the two. In this research note, I argue that this is because they do not correctly proxy for the existence of an external threat. Previous studies employ measures based on past militarized disputes, but a valid measure must capture expectations of future militarized disputes. To identify a better indicator of external threat, I situate alliance formation in crisis bargaining theory. The framework suggests that a target will be more likely to seek an alliance as its challenger’s probability of winning in war increases. I test this hypothesis and find a positive relationship between external threat and alliance formation. My analysis provides support for a central pillar of alliance theorizing. Additionally, it suggests that any pacifying effects of alliances may be difficult to uncover, as alliances form when the probability of conflict is already high. |
| `In' analytical Note | International Studies Quarterly Vol. 61, No.3; Sep 2017: p.736–745 |
| Journal Source | International Studies Quarterly Vol: 61 No 3 |
| Key Words | External Threat ; Alliance Formation |