| ID | 160556 |
| Title Proper | Bias in Perceptions of Public Opinion among Political Elites |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Broockman, David E |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | The conservative asymmetry of elite polarization represents a significant puzzle. We argue that politicians can maintain systematic misperceptions of constituency opinion that may contribute to breakdowns in dyadic representation. We demonstrate this argument with original surveys of 3,765 politicians’ perceptions of constituency opinion on nine issues. In 2012 and 2014, state legislative politicians from both parties dramatically overestimated their constituents’ support for conservative policies on these issues, a pattern consistent across methods, districts, and states. Republicans drive much of this overestimation. Exploiting responses from politicians in the same district, we confirm these partisan differences within individual districts. Further evidence suggests that this overestimation may arise due to biases in who contacts politicians, as in recent years Republican citizens have been especially likely to contact legislators, especially fellow Republicans. Our findings suggest that a novel force can operate in elections and in legislatures: Politicians can systematically misperceive what their constituents want. |
| `In' analytical Note | American Political Science Review Vol. 112, No.3; Aug 2018: p.542-563 |
| Journal Source | American Political Science Review 2018-07 112, 3 |
| Key Words | Public Opinion ; Political Elites |