| ID | 166780 |
| Title Proper | Mind games: cognitive bias, US intelligence and the 1968 Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Brand, Melanie |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | This article examines the impact of cognitive bias on the analytic output of the United States intelligence community during the Prague Spring. Utilising a range of primary sources, including declassified documents, oral history and contemporary accounts, this article argues that as a result of heuristic biases, analysts formed the mindset that the Soviet Union would not invade Czechoslovakia, and did not alter that assumption in the face of increasing evidence to the contrary. Consequently analysts possessed a distorted understanding of both Soviet intentions and the prevailing political environment and did not accurately convey the likelihood of military action to consumers.
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| `In' analytical Note | Intelligence and National Security Vol. 34, No.5; Aug 2019: p.743-757 |
| Journal Source | Intelligence and National Security Vol: 34 No 5 |
| Key Words | US Intelligence ; Cognitive Bias ; Mind Games ; 1968 Soviet Invasion of Czechoslovakia |