| ID | 168337 |
| Title Proper | Can Japan enhance its 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets? Assessment of economic and energy-related assumptions in Japan's NDC |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Akihisa Kuriyama ; Kuriyama, Akihisa |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | This study investigates the stringency of Japan's greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for 2030 (nationally determined contribution: NDC), focusing on the macroeconomic assumptions of Kaya indicators and others previously overlooked, e.g. GDP per working-age population. It also conducts a decomposition analysis in light of historic political and economic events.
We find that the real GDP growth assumption underlying the NDC target is unrealistic. Namely, the real GDP per working-age population, which is an indicator of productivity, needs to be improved annually by 2.5% on average for 15 years, a high level that has not been observed since the collapse of the economic bubble in the early 1990s. |
| `In' analytical Note | Energy Policy. No.130; Jul 2019: p.328-340 |
| Journal Source | Energy Policy 2019-07 |
| Key Words | Japan ; Climate Policy ; GHG Emissions ; Paris Agreement ; Kaya Identity ; LMDI Analysis |