| ID | 168620 |
| Title Proper | Getting the right picture for the wrong reasons |
| Other Title Information | intelligence analysis by Hezbollah and Hamas |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Bitton, Raphael |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | This article analyses intelligence assessment as performed by Hezbollah and Hamas and similar Violent Non-State Actors (“VNSA”). VNSA’s seek to inflict the highest level of harm on adversary states without provoking full-scale wars, which they avoid due to military asymmetry. Improved intelligence regarding a state’s cost/benefit analysis of unleashing full-scale war thus enables VNSA’s to “safely” calibrate operations to maximize harm. Such efforts might prove error-prone for three reasons: the authoritarian structure characterizing VNSAs; psychological bias regarding both self and enemy; and a “transparency fallacy” concerning target states. Assessments of Hezbollah (2006) and Hamas (2014) serve as case studies. |
| `In' analytical Note | Intelligence and National Security Vol. 34, No.7; Dec 2019: p.1027-1044 |
| Journal Source | Intelligence and National Security Vol: 34 No 7 |
| Key Words | Intelligence Analysis ; Hezbollah and Hamas ; VNSA |