| ID | 170022 |
| Title Proper | Uncertainty Trade-off |
| Other Title Information | Reexamining Opportunity Costs and War |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Spaniel, William ; William Spaniel, Iris Malone ; Malone, Iris |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Conventional wisdom about economic interdependence and international conflict predicts that increasing opportunity costs make war less likely, but some wars occur after costs grow. Why? We develop a model that shows that a nonmonotonic relationship exists between the costs and probability of war when there is uncertainty over resolve. Under these conditions, increasing the costs of an uninformed party's opponent has a second-order effect of exacerbating informational asymmetries about that opponent's willingness to maintain peace. We derive conditions under which war can occur more frequently and empirically showcase the model's implications through a case study of Sino-Indian relations from 1949 to 2007. This finding challenges how scholars traditionally believe economic interdependence mediates incentives to fight: instruments such as trade have competing effects on the probability of war. |
| `In' analytical Note | International Studies Quarterly Vol. 63, No.4; Dec 2019: p.1025–1034 |
| Journal Source | International Studies Quarterly Vol: 63 No 4 |
| Key Words | War ; Uncertainty Trade-off ; Reexamining Opportunity Costs |