| ID | 172329 |
| Title Proper | Battle diffusion matters |
| Other Title Information | examining the impact of microdynamics of fighting on conflict termination |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Elliott, Kaisa Hinkkainen ; Ito, Gaku |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | How does diffusion of civil war battles influence conflict termination? Recent advances in civil war literature have found that battle dynamics shape conflict termination by affecting the intra-conflict bargaining between disputants. This article extends the theoretical perspective and argues that how battles diffuse matters in determining conflict termination. While battlefield dynamics should in principle reveal previously unavailable private information, the relevance of information-revealing effect depends on the diffusion patterns of battles. The persistent, and possibly battle-exacerbated, commitment problem can also alter the prospects of conflict termination. We test the argument by distinguishing two distinct diffusion patterns of battles: distant and proximate. The empirical results reveal that distant diffusion, but not proximate diffusion, of battles makes civil conflicts less likely to terminate. The analysis also demonstrates that incorporating diffusion dynamics significantly improves our ability to predict conflict termination. |
| `In' analytical Note | Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 64, No.5; May 2020: p.871–902 |
| Journal Source | Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol: 64 No 5 |
| Key Words | Conflict Resolution ; Civil Wars ; Internal armed Conflict ; Negotiation ; Spatial Analysis ; Event Data |