| ID | 174727 |
| Title Proper | Why language matters |
| Other Title Information | Shaping public risk tolerance during deterrence crises |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Zwald, Zachary ; Berejikian, Jeffrey |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Despite the obvious the risks involved in deterrence bargaining, we know surprisingly little about how the public evaluates risk during a crisis. A limited deterrence scholarship considers domestic preferences and tends to assume that the public’s risk tolerance remains stable throughout a deterrence episode. Yet, robust findings in cognitive psychology suggest that people’s risk tolerance can shift dramatically based on how the potential outcomes of military options are framed. We evaluate these competing views through a series of decision experiments grounded in prospect theory. Across an array of potential extended deterrence scenarios, we demonstrate that simply reframing the language used to describe the possible outcome of military options affects both the public’s willingness to accept risks and, therefore, their willingness to escalate the crisis. These findings condition long-standing concerns about the public’s intransigent risk disposition, which underpin research on costly signaling, deterrence traps, and nuclear self-deterrence. |
| `In' analytical Note | Contemporary Security Policy Vol. 41, No.4; Oct 2020: p.507-540 |
| Journal Source | Contemporary Security Policy Vol: 41 No 4 |
| Key Words | Deterrence ; United States ; Foreign Policy Analysis ; Prospect Theory ; Experiments |