| ID | 174774 |
| Title Proper | Embattled authoritarians |
| Other Title Information | continuity and collapse in Central and Southwest Asia |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Sullivan, Charles J |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Why are some authoritarian leaders able to stave off violent challengers to their rule while others falter? This article analyzes several case studies involving a series of nondemocratic governments and violent non-state actors waging war and posits that different combinations of variables lead to dissimilar outcomes (ranging from “civil war/insurgency”, “regime implosion” or “foreign-based overthrow”, “negotiated peace”, to “strategic advance and retreat”). Accordingly, “embattled authoritarians” require a high level of “political-military aid” over time from a supportive foreign power to effectively combat “violent non-state challengers”. However, it is difficult for such governments to completely escape from “embattled” status, particularly if a supportive foreign power does not exert influence to set parameters for peace between the warring parties and the level of international interference (i.e. political-military aid abetting violent non-state challengers courtesy of other foreign powers) does not recede over time. This article concludes with a forecast on Afghanistan and Tajikistan’s respective futures and discusses how the onset of political instability within the former may serve to destabilize the political situation in the latter. |
| `In' analytical Note | Asian Security Vol. 16, No.3; Sep-Oct 2020: p.363-378 |
| Journal Source | Asian Security Vol: 16 No 3 |
| Key Words | Insurgency ; Central Asia ; Foreign Power ; Southwest Asia ; Civil War ; Authoritarians ; Political - Military Aid |