| ID | 179142 |
| Title Proper | Forecasting for Intelligence Analysis |
| Other Title Information | Scenarios to Abort Strategic Surprise |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Barnea, Avner ; Meshulach, Avi |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | A successful strategic surprise, whether in the military or business sector, can have critical significance both for the initiating organization (the “attacker”) and the organization under attack (“the victim”). In the military sector, the attack can disrupt the victim’s strategic organization, inflict untold damage, foil its ability to protect itself and to react, and even determine the outcome of the battle. For example, the sudden strike that the Germans unleashed on the USSR in Operation Barbarossa (1941) disrupted the USSR’s defense systems, dealt the Russian soldiers a fatal blow, and greatly expedited Germany’s huge land invasion of the USSR. It took the USSR two to three years to recover and rebuild to the level where it could challenge the German powerhouse. The attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 had the same destructive effect on U.S. forces in a single day. |
| `In' analytical Note | International Journal of Intelligence and Counter Intelligence Vol. 34, No.1; Spring 2021: p.106-133 |
| Journal Source | International Journal of Intelligence and Counter Intelligence Vol: 34 No 1 |
| Key Words | Forecasting ; Intelligence Analysis ; Strategic Surprise |