| ID | 181851 |
| Title Proper | What Roles Do Population and Migration Flows Play in the Spatial Diffusion of COVID-19 from Wuhan City to Provincial Regions in China? |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Shen, Jianfa |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Population flow and migration flow are related but different. This research demonstrates the important roles of population and migration flows in the spatial diffusion of COVID-19 in mainland China using statistical analysis. Visitors are often considered responsible for the spread of COVID-19. Many migrants traveled back to their hometown from Wuhan city before 23 January 2020 for the spring holiday. They had stayed in Wuhan for a long time and had a higher risk to be infected than other short-term visitors. Thus previous migration flow is expected to have an indirect impact on the spatial diffusion of COVID-19 via population flow. It is found that the migration flows in 2005–2010 and 2010–2015 generally had larger correlation coefficients than real-time population flows based on big data on any day during 10–22 January 2020 with the number of COVID-19 cases. The average population flow in 8 days also had high correlation coefficients with the number of COVID-19 cases. The weighted average share of population flow and migration flow had the highest correlation coefficient with the number of COVID-19 cases on 26 January 2020. The COVID-19 risk for a migrant and a resident from an affected area could be 9 times that for a visitor. |
| `In' analytical Note | China Review Vol. 21, No.3; Aug 2021: p.189-219 |
| Journal Source | China Review 2021-09 21, 3 |
| Key Words | COVID-19 ; Population and Migration Flows ; Wuhan City to Provincial Regions in China |