| ID | 183445 |
| Title Proper | Challenges and prospects for the dprk |
| Other Title Information | forecast for 2021 |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Asmolov, Konstantin ; Zakharova, Ludmila ; Konstantin ASMOLOV, Ludmila ZAKHAROVA |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Since the 1990s, many publications in the world have predicted the "imminent collapse of the North Korean regime" or a change of power in the country. However, so far this has not happened, and the DPRK continues to exist in its former form. What leads to such chronically unrealizable predictions about North Korea, and what are the alternatives for the future of this country in the short and medium term?
Based on a number of recent unfulfilled predictions, the authors try to explain the reason for these failures, closely related to ideological framework, lack of information, and dependence on certain sources, which leads to underestimation of the DPRK's capabilities and misinterpretation of data, when any event is seen as a sign of the regime's imminent collapse. Based on the theoretical approaches of Gordon Tullock and Vladimir Lenin, the article identifies the main types of modern threats to the current political regime (external invasion, coup within the elite, economic collapse, mass protests), as well as the probability of their implementation under the current policy of the DPRK leadership. |
| `In' analytical Note | Far Eastern Affairs Vol. 49, No.3; 2021: p.1-19 |
| Journal Source | Far Eastern Affairs Vol: 49 No 3 |
| Key Words | North Korea ; Kim Jong-un ; DPRK Economy ; Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) ; DPRK Domestic Politics ; Scenario Forecasting |