| ID | 187256 |
| Title Proper | Belarus, Russia, Ukraine |
| Other Title Information | Three Lessons for a Post-war Order |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Gould-Davies, Nigel |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Belarus’s recent arc offers three wider lessons for winding down the present international crisis over the Russia–Ukraine war and for planning the post-war order. Firstly, highly personalistic rule is prone to error. The flagrancy of Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s electoral rigging ignited popular indignation, and the extreme brutality of the ensuing crackdown fanned popular outrage. Secondly, and paradoxically, autocracy is strong. Lukashenka’s tight control over all institutions of the state enabled him to prevent elites from defecting or losing the will to resist. Thirdly, ambiguities and compromises are unstable, and must sooner or later give way to clarifying choices. The post-war order must embed decisive outcomes, not unsustainable compromises. The West’s challenge is to enmesh a stable Ukraine in a wider peace that, for the third time in a century, builds a durable security order in Europe. |
| `In' analytical Note | Survival : the IISS Quarterly Vol. 64, No.5; Oct-Nov 2022: p.39-46 |
| Journal Source | Survival : the IISS Quarterly Vol: 64 No 5 |
| Key Words | Belarus ; Autocracy ; Nikita Khrushchev ; Alyaksandr Lukashenka ; Sviatlana Tsihanouskaya |