| ID | 187648 |
| Title Proper | How not to think like a hegemon |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Stein, Janice gross |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | As the United States experiences a relative decline in its share of global GDP and China increases its relative share, there is growing concern about the consequences of intensifying competition between the two great powers. This article takes a wider angled view, warns against a single narrative and provides a collection of plausible stories. First, the story of the rise of China and the decline of the United States that relies heavily on ‘hard’ measures like GDP and relative military capability overlooks other relevant indicators such as normative and network power. I argue that the United States enjoys considerable advantages as measured by both these indicators and will continue to do so for some time. Second, the status of a great power in the international system is a product not only of systemic and structural forces but also of economic and political capacity that enables governments to make strategic choices. The future is contingent, not determined, because the strategies leaders choose matter. I build a matrix of nine possible worlds that result from the choices that the leaders of China and the United States could make over the next twenty years. Finally, I argue that the biggest threat to international peace may come not from rising powers, but when the leaders of the challenger as well as the defender fear that their power may have peaked and that they are beginning to decline. |
| `In' analytical Note | International Affairs Vol. 98, No.5; Sep 2022: p.1615–1633 |
| Journal Source | International Affairs Vol: 98 No 5 |
| Key Words | GDP ; China ; United State |