ID | 190420 |
Title Proper | Divided We Fall |
Other Title Information | Ethnic Cleavages, Movement Cohesion, and the Risk of Escalation to Civil War in Non-Violent Uprisings |
Language | ENG |
Author | Svensson, Isak ; Mustasilta, Katariina |
Summary / Abstract (Note) | Why do some non-violent uprisings escalate into armed violence while others do not? We suggest that horizontal polarisation contributes to the escalation of non-violent campaigns. We examine the effect of ethnic cleavages between the campaign and its opponent and movement cohesion as explanatory factors for escalation into civil war and non-state violence. Statistical analysis of all major non-violent campaigns (1970–2014) shows that non-violent conflicts with ethnic cleavages have a higher risk of escalating into armed violence in particular, when the conflict takes place over governmental aims. The results also indicate that movement cohesion alleviates the risk of armed escalation. |
`In' analytical Note | Civil Wars Vol. 25, No.1; Mar 2023: p.103-136 |
Journal Source | Civil Wars Vol: 25 No 1 |
Key Words | Movement Cohesion ; Risk of Escalation to Civil War ; Non-Violent Uprisings |