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ID192528
Title ProperLetting sleeping bears lie
Other Title InformationUkraine’s cautious approach to uncertainty before the war
LanguageENG
AuthorSeitz, Samuel M
Summary / Abstract (Note)International relations theory has long suggested that uncertainty during militarized crises pushes states to adopt escalatory behavior. However, the leadup to the Russo-Ukrainian War challenges this view, with Kyiv downplaying the risk of conflict and adopting a cautious foreign policy. I argue that Ukrainian behavior in the leadup to the war demonstrates the need to disaggregate between types of uncertainty. While uncertainty over an adversary’s intentions and capabilities can push a state to adopt escalatory behavior, uncertainty regarding a potential adversary’s military strategy and regarding the level of support it can expect from third parties incentivizes a state to assume a more cautious posture. The piece concludes with a reflection on disciplinary blind spots regarding the impact of uncertainty on state decision-making and offers suggestions for overcoming them.
`In' analytical NoteContemporary Security Policy Vol. 44, No.4; Oct 2023: p.530-543
Journal SourceContemporary Security Policy Vol: 44 No 4
Key WordsUncertainty ;  Bargaining ;  Conflict Initiation ;  Russo-Ukrainian War


 
 
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