| ID | 192528 |
| Title Proper | Letting sleeping bears lie |
| Other Title Information | Ukraine’s cautious approach to uncertainty before the war |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Seitz, Samuel M |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | International relations theory has long suggested that uncertainty during militarized crises pushes states to adopt escalatory behavior. However, the leadup to the Russo-Ukrainian War challenges this view, with Kyiv downplaying the risk of conflict and adopting a cautious foreign policy. I argue that Ukrainian behavior in the leadup to the war demonstrates the need to disaggregate between types of uncertainty. While uncertainty over an adversary’s intentions and capabilities can push a state to adopt escalatory behavior, uncertainty regarding a potential adversary’s military strategy and regarding the level of support it can expect from third parties incentivizes a state to assume a more cautious posture. The piece concludes with a reflection on disciplinary blind spots regarding the impact of uncertainty on state decision-making and offers suggestions for overcoming them. |
| `In' analytical Note | Contemporary Security Policy Vol. 44, No.4; Oct 2023: p.530-543 |
| Journal Source | Contemporary Security Policy Vol: 44 No 4 |
| Key Words | Uncertainty ; Bargaining ; Conflict Initiation ; Russo-Ukrainian War |