| ID | 192654 |
| Title Proper | From gray zone to conventional warfare |
| Other Title Information | the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Black Sea |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Malyarenko, Tetyana ; Kormych, Borys |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | A gray zone conflict that emerged after the Russian annexation of Crimea was an element of the Russian strategy of establishing and consolidating a new and more favourable internationally recognized maritime order in the Black Sea, Kerch Strait, and the Sea of Azov. Empirical data shows that Russian superiority over Ukraine and inferiority vis-a-vis the West shaped a double asymmetry of its tactics of projecting power against Ukraine while avoiding confrontation with the West. Eventually, Moscow reached a point where the gray zone tactics could not secure its objectives. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 signalled the exhausting coercive potential of a gray zone conflict. Although, despite of transition to conventional warfare, we found continuity of ‘gray zone’ tactics of double asymmetry and denying responsibility in the Russian playbook. Hence, a possible de-escalation of the Russia – Ukraine war may likely return to a gray zone conflict. |
| `In' analytical Note | Small Wars and Insurgencies Vol. 34, No.7; Oct 2023: p.1235-1270 |
| Journal Source | Small Wars and Insurgencies Vol: 34 No 7 |
| Key Words | Naval Strategy ; Russia ; Ukraine ; Hybrid Warfare ; Wa ; Gray zone conflict ; Tthe black sea ; the sea of azov |