| ID | 192726 |
| Title Proper | Plausible futures for the Norwegian offshore energy sector |
| Other Title Information | Business as usual, harvest or rebuild? |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Stoknes, Per Espen |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | The global energy transition from fossil to low-carbon energy challenges the future of the Norwegian petroleum sector, a major factor in the country's economy, now facing financial climate risk and long-term declining demand, particularly for gas to the EU. What energy policies can assist transition into a low-carbon society? We explore three investment scenarios for the Norwegian offshore energy sector from 2020 to 2070: 1) Business as usual, 2) Increasing cash-flow by harvesting existing petroleum fields and cutting investments (Harvest-and-Exit), or 3) Rebuilding with green offshore energy investments. In a new economic model, we compare impacts on key macro- and sector-economic variables. We find that rebuilding by investing moderately in green offshore energy production could reverse the extra job decline that a quicker phase-out of petroleum investments would incur. The impacts on the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund - Government Pension Fund Global - and on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita are insignificant to 2050 and positive by 2070. The simulated investments and economic results can be compared with observations to constitute forward-looking indicators for energy transitioning in producer countries. |
| `In' analytical Note | Energy Policy Vol. 184, Jan 2024: p. 113887 |
| Journal Source | Energy Policy 2024-01 184 |
| Key Words | Energy ; Petroleum ; Offshore Wind ; Green Transition |