Summary/Abstract |
The politics of multilateral emissions treaties are pathological. To succeed, such treaties must overcome: (1) the free-rider problem in the international sphere; (2) domestic constituencies that favor the production and sale of fossil fuels, the most important of which is often the general public; (3) resentment from developing nations asked to sacrifice their growth to mitigate the historic emissions of wealthy countries; (4) an increasingly hostile national security environment; and (5) a skeptical Republican Party, which often leads the most important country for global cooperation. It is no surprise, then, that a 2021 study of 36 countries representing 80 percent of the world’s emissions found that only one country—Gambia—had made commitments in line with the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.Footnote1 That temperature is the accepted, if somewhat arbitrary, tipping point after which the most serious and likely irreversible effects of warming will emerge.Footnote2 We currently sit at 1.1 degrees above such levels,Footnote3 and every year the average atmospheric carbon dioxide level increases like clockwork.Footnote4 Tick tock. Indeed, despite the economic drag from the COVID-19 pandemic, we humans released 36.8 billion tons of carbon in 2022 due to energy combustion and industrial processes—the highest ever annual level.Footnote
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