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| 1 |
ID:
192389
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper explores the effect of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on China's exports and the domestic carbon emissions induced by the exports. We employ a decomposition framework to assess the driving factors of the change of CO2 emissions induced by China's exports to different destinations and evaluate the main contributions of the gap between the BRI countries and non-BRI (NBRI) countries. The decomposition results show that while the scale effect was the dominant force behind the pre-BRI emission growth, the contribution of the composition effect became more prominent after the inception of the Initiative. Our econometric analysis suggests that the Initiative leads to an increase in the share of carbon-intensive products in China's exports to the BRI countries by nearly 5 percentage points, which is approximately one quarter of the share of carbon-intensive exports to the BRI countries. A further investigation reveals that China's international project contracting is the main channel that has resulted in the increase of the share of carbon-intensive exports in China's exports to the BRI countries.
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| 2 |
ID:
192387
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this work, we systematically investigate the pricing mechanism change from auction to big data pricing on one of the major marketplace lending platforms in China. We find that big data pricing reduces the average interest rate while the borrowers with delinquency or default histories are assigned higher interest rates. However, repeat borrowers are also faced with growing interest rates, even though they have been paying their debts on time. Further analysis shows that repeat borrowers have lower income and education levels. Moreover, investor returns become less dispersed after pricing with big data, which can be a result of homogeneous loans on the market. The implications of the above findings are discussed.
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| 3 |
ID:
192396
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| Summary/Abstract |
By incorporating imprinting theory into a political–economic framework, this paper studies the role of local political leaders in poverty reduction. Exploiting exogenous turnovers of city-level party secretaries in China, I find that city secretaries with early-life poverty experiences are more likely to increase the incomes of poor families in their jurisdictions. I further find that the effect of city secretaries' poverty experiences on the income of the poor is more pronounced in the counties that are not officially categorized as impoverished by the central government and among the families living above the poverty line set by the Chinese government but below the international poverty line proposed by the World Bank. It is suggested that local political leaders affect poverty reduction outcomes by instilling their personal preferences, which can be shaped by their early experiences, into their economic decisions.
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| 4 |
ID:
192384
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| Summary/Abstract |
The policy design of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission mitigation is a hotly debated topic in the context of “Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality” in China. This paper contributes to this debate by employing an unsupervised machine learning algorithm to uncover the CO2 emission typology based on the provincial emission data in China from 2000 to 2018 for a precise design of CO2 emission mitigation policy for heterogenous regional patterns. The results indicate that we can cluster the provinces into four CO2 emission patterns: the under-developed pattern, the coal-dominated pattern, the oil-dominated pattern, and the gas-dominated pattern. Notably, both the under-developed pattern and the coal-dominated pattern have a large amount of CO2 emission from fossil fuels, while the gas-dominated pattern could be regarded as the policy inclination as it relies more on low-carbon fuels. Moreover, we also reveal the transition routes of emission patterns from a dynamic perspective, which could help policymakers better understand the future trend of emission patterns in different regions. On the one hand, the CO2 emission mitigation policies could have specified priorities in different patterns, ensuring the feasibility during the process of policy implementation. On the other hand, establishing a national unified carbon trade market could facilitate efficient energy transition in China, and prevent carbon leakage cross different regions as well.
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| 5 |
ID:
192397
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| Summary/Abstract |
Carbon inequality has attracted increasing attention worldwide. Utilizing data from China's High Spatial Resolution Emission Gridded Database (CHRED), this paper presents the measured CO2 emission inequality in China for the years 2005, 2012, 2015, and 2020. Results show that the Gini coefficients of carbon emission report a slight decrease from 0.411 to 0.385 and the distribution becomes more symmetric from 2005 to 2020. Linking carbon inequality to economic level, the positive concentration index (0.230 to 0.118) indicates asymmetricity between carbon emission and economic development. A further decomposition analysis reveals the industrial sector's uneven development, indicating that energy-intensive features can be blamed for a large proportion of carbon inequality. Our findings suggest that policymakers should not consider economic development level alone as the only indicator of the allocation of abatement, as economic structure, energy intensity, and climate conditions are all responsible for such inequality.
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| 6 |
ID:
192381
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this editorial, we reviewed the articles collected in the special issue "Economics of Pandemic Disease" along with other relevant literature. We found that the pandemic has had a devastating impact on the economy as a whole and on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and private firms in particular, which may have deepened the economic inequality and impeded poverty reduction in China. The pandemic also resulted in substantial damage to the mental health and well-being of the Chinese population, with a disproportionate impact on minorities, including the female and the illiterate. We also examined the available evidence regarding the effectiveness of China's policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, which suggested that China's zero-Covid policy succeeded in stabilizing its economy and maintaining a safe environment in earlier phases of the pandemic, but hardly achieved a balance between disease control and economic growth in the later stage when less fatal but more transmissive coronavirus variants emerged. Lastly, we discussed policy options that China may take to protect the health of its people and avoid a potentially substantial loss of lives during the transition toward the post-pandemic new normal, which include prioritizing the timely administration of effective vaccines among the elderly and vulnerable populations, improving public communications regarding when and how to seek medical help, and strengthening the surge capacity of the healthcare systems, especially in less developed regions.
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| 7 |
ID:
192380
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| Summary/Abstract |
The COVID-19 pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to public health and economic development around the world. The year 2020 was a remarkably difficult one, with lockdowns, travel restrictions, virtual online schooling, and economic disruptions. The theme of the 2021 annual meeting of the Chinese Economist Society (CES), hosted (virtually) by Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, China, was “Public Policy and Economic Behavior: China and the World amidst a Global Pandemic”. Papers in this special issue were selected from among 38 submissions in response to an open Call for Papers and were all subjected to a double-blind review process.
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| 8 |
ID:
192385
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| Summary/Abstract |
Emissions reduction in the electricity sector is critical in achieving China's carbon neutrality target. While a national carbon trading market that covers the electricity sector has been established, its effectiveness depends on how this sector evolves into being a more integrated market. This study evaluated the impact of China's electricity market integration on the cost-effectiveness of carbon pricing. An integrated (regional electricity market) and a segmented (provincial electricity market) market scenario were used to identify possible reform paths going forward. Using high-frequency datasets of the five southern provinces in 2018, we assessed the impact of electricity market integration on the abatement potential and cost-effectiveness of carbon pricing. We found that carbon prices need to be as high as 200 yuan/ton to begin achieving overall carbon reduction. In this context, the regional market is more cost-effective in reducing emissions than the provincial one, as the abatement costs are saved by around 60% compared to the latter under the same emission reduction targets. However, the regional market may also raise potential equity issues. The provincial-level distribution of carbon emission reductions, as well as the withdrawal of coal power, are more concentrated in the regional market than in the provincial one, which indicates an inequitable social-economic-environmental impacts of market integration. Our research findings would help to improve policymakers' understanding of the interaction between carbon pricing and electricity market reforms. This would then assist them in coordinating an effective design of both the carbon and electricity markets, in addition to supporting China's carbon neutrality target.
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| 9 |
ID:
192399
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| Summary/Abstract |
Parents with a special social status generate spillover effects to other parents and children. Because cadres (government officials) in China have a broad influence on resource allocation, their presence elicits responses from surrounding parents and students. Exploiting random classroom assignments in Chinese middle schools, we find that increased exposure to classmates' cadre parents raises parents' attention to their children's friendships and guidance over schoolwork. We also find evidence suggesting that parental changes raise the child's test scores. The findings highlight parental adjustments as a mediator of the external influence of peer parents on children.
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| 10 |
ID:
192395
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| Summary/Abstract |
In developing countries widespread air pollution poses a major threat to public health calling for effective environmental regulation. This paper adds to the limited literature on the health impact of different environmental regulations. Using data from eight waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (1993–2015), we employ a difference-in-differences model to investigate the health impact of two policies combatting SO2 air pollution: the command-and-control environmental regulation represented by the Two Control Zones (TCZ) and the market-oriented environmental regulation represented by the SO2 Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The main findings are that the TCZ policy resulted in a 39% reduction in the 4-week prevalence of air pollution-related diseases through channels such as reducing industrial SO2 emissions and industrial fumes emissions, and increasing individuals' amounts of physical exercise. In contrast, the ETS had no positive health effects, likely due to imperfect market mechanisms and environmental policy uncertainties. The health impact of the TCZ was most pronounced for respiratory illnesses, and was increasing over the period during which the policy was implemented. The positive health impact is stronger for outdoor, less educated, and lower income workers. Residents in Eastern regions and urban areas (especially the rural hukou holders living there) benefitted more from the environmental regulation.
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| 11 |
ID:
192398
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| Summary/Abstract |
The fact that firms seek political connections through revolving-door recruitment is widely acknowledged around the world. Using an original database including the information of listed firms' board members and parcel-level land transaction records, this paper documents how revolving-door recruitment makes firms stand out in China's land market. We show that firms with revolving-door recruitment receive special deals in land transactions, which are simultaneously reflected in the quantity and price of land. Specifically, connected firms buy more parcels and larger areas of land in the primary land market. Due to the particularity of industrial land, price discounts are only identified for commercial and residential land, while not for industrial land. Measuring economic activity by night light intensity, we find no evidence that land transaction under the influence of political connections has a negative impact on economic activity on land. Our research advances the understanding that the state-business relationship is an essential factor in resource allocation in an emerging market with government intervention.
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| 12 |
ID:
192393
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| Summary/Abstract |
Using the data from the China Family Panel Studies from 2010 to 2018, we find that rising income inequality causes parents to spend more on children’s education, both in school and out of school. The impact of income inequality on out-of-school expenditures is significant at intensive and extensive margins, especially for study-related tutoring participation. Furthermore, we find some empirical evidence suggesting that in response to rising inequality, mothers spend more time on children’s education and there exists a substitution effect between time and money. Further analysis suggests two potential reasons for the rising education spending: (1) a higher income inequality resulting from rising skill premium strengthens parents’ long-lasting cultural attitude towards education to higher levels, inducing them to spend more on educational investment, and (2) a higher income inequality increases the value of higher education, leading to a stronger demand for better educational opportunities, and then, more intense education competition, forcing parents to invest more in education.
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| 13 |
ID:
192388
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| Summary/Abstract |
The People's Bank of China (PBC) now frequently uses communication as a policy tool. Whether its words are consistent with its deeds is important for the public to understand the PBC's complex behavior. In this paper, we employ a supervised learning model to construct monetary policy (MP) and economic outlook (EC) communication indices based on the outlook section of quarterly China Monetary Policy Reports (MPRs). We find that the PBC not only adjusts its interventions according to the corresponding economic situation, but also takes into account the information released in the previous outlook section, which indicates its consistency in words and deeds. Using a time-varying parameter model, we further find that the PBC's consistency of words and deeds has made progress over time. The PBC tends to be more consistent in words and deeds under higher uncertainty, and the improvement of such consistency can significantly decrease disagreement about inflation expectations. An additional analysis shows that the full text of MPRs can help predict future monetary policies on a longer time horizon.
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| 14 |
ID:
192390
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| Summary/Abstract |
We study the changing landscape of credit market guarantees by examining the risk-pricing of the Chinese state-owned enterprise (SOE) bonds, which have experienced rising defaults across provinces from a zero record. Using primary market bond issuance data, we identify a province premium that captures the perceived local government support for local SOEs. We find that on average the perceived local government support is on the decline, while the subnational debt market has become more segmented since 2018. This evidence is found to be closely related to the divergence in local government’s fiscal space and the occurrence of SOE default incidents in the area, highlighting the adverse linkage between public debt and corporate financing costs.
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| 15 |
ID:
192394
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| Summary/Abstract |
Agricultural technology transfers are generally considered an effective means of solving persistently low yields in sub-Saharan Africa. This study assesses the impact of the Chinese agricultural training program on farmers' productivity and income using ex-post non-experimental data from Ogun State, Nigeria. Our empirical approach is based on marginal treatment effect models. We find that the returns for individuals who participated in Chinese agricultural technology training indicated a 68.5% increase in yield and a 45.3% increase in agricultural income. Furthermore, we show that the program targets farmers from advantaged backgrounds, who may benefit less from attending the program than disadvantaged farmers, who experience a lower incentive to participate. Finally, we suggest sufficient awareness and incentives to encourage highly resistant farmers to participate in such programmes.
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| 16 |
ID:
192382
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| Summary/Abstract |
Understanding the diversity of the residential demand for various electrical services is critical for utilities and policymakers in conducting effective demand side management and narrowing urban-rural inequality. Previous research has usually treated the household as a unit of analysis, and thus may have ignored the fact that household electricity consumption is derived demand driven by specific services, which fails to examine the heterogeneous behavioral responses. Therefore, this paper presents a new pattern of residential demand for various electrical services and quantifies the impacts of socioeconomic determinants in China. The conditional demand analysis is performed on the unique dataset of the Chinese Residential Energy Consumption Survey of 2014 to estimate the electricity demand distribution in eight types of services and to investigate the effect of socioeconomic variables on service-specific electricity consumption. The results show that, together, entertainment and food refrigeration account for about half of the total annual electricity consumption, followed by laundry, lighting, space cooling, and hot water. Rural households use about 7.2% of total electricity for cooking purposes, while urban counterparts hardly use electricity to cook at all. Electricity consumption for space heating is negligible for both urban and rural households. Heterogeneity in socioeconomic determinants is found not only among different electrical services but also between urban and rural households.
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| 17 |
ID:
192391
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| Summary/Abstract |
When obtaining short-term loans, an innovative firm tends to expand its production scale, thereby reallocating its R&D-related resources away from innovation. By exploiting the unique situation in China that patenting firms for the first time obtained short-term patent-backed loans (PBLs), we find that the PBL access negatively influences firms' propensities of producing high-quality innovation. Consistent with the R&D resource reallocation hypothesis, we find that this negative effect exists only among firms initially having invention patents; it is more pronounced when the PBL covers a larger portion of firm investment and when these firms expand more aggressively. We confirm the scale expansion effect by finding that the PBL access positively influences firms' subsequent size.
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| 18 |
ID:
192386
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| Summary/Abstract |
Understanding the relationships between different signals that indicate the characteristics of workers and firms is essential to improving job matching efficiency. Using a field experiment, we investigate student leadership experience premiums and explore the relationships between signals reflecting personal qualities and signals reflecting vacancy-related qualities. We find that, first, there is no universal causal effect of student leadership experience on job accessibility in China. Second, student leadership experience complements other personal qualities for individuals majoring in science and engineering. Third, student leadership experience is a complementary factor for small firms. Fourth, higher-level student leaders enjoy a larger premium in job accessibility. Finally, student leaders are not preferred by high-paying positions but favored by positions with large payment variances.
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| 19 |
ID:
192383
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| Summary/Abstract |
This unique study focuses on how the carbon trading system (CTS), stakeholder concerns and innovation incentive policies all combine to effect enterprises' green technology innovation. Using a three-dimension system, this study includes green output level, green output proportion and green total factor productivity. Utilizing a DID model of an unbalanced panel, we investigate how government and enterprise work together better to achieve carbon emission targets. The main findings are as follows: (1) Enterprises are displaying a high level of concern with environmental information disclosure and therefore their CTS will have a more significant impact on green technology output and the proportion of this green output. In contrast, government concerns about decarbonization with CTS have uncertain effects on the three dimensions of green technology innovation. (2) CTS Fiscal subsidies and R&D funding are strong ways to improve enterprises' green technology output. However, the best way to improve green technology output, green output proportion and green total factor productivity is with tax returns. When tax returns increase 1%, the green output level increases 1.5% under the CTS. (3) This study, utilizing data from the impact of different implementation modes of innovations incentive policies, shows that inclusive innovation policies make CTS's combined effects more significant than differentiated policies.
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| 20 |
ID:
192392
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| Summary/Abstract |
Using data from the China Family Panel Studies, this paper exploits the Compulsory Education Law of China implemented in the 1980s to empirically examine the causal impact of women's education on fertility in rural China by difference-in-differences methods. The results show that an additional year of schooling lowered the number of children a woman would have by approximately 0.09 children, postponed the age of first childbirth by 0.7 years, and reduced the probability of having a second child or more children by 0.18 among those mothers whose first child was a girl. In addition to the income effect, these results are also partly explained by more educated women preferring quality to quantity of children, placing a greater value on leisure and no longer perceiving children as the sole focus in their lives.
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