| Summary/Abstract |
This study aims to assess the scale of foreign companies’ withdrawal from
the Russian market after the start of the Special Military Operation in
Ukraine as well as the possibility of replacing them with counterparties
from jurisdictions that have not joined anti-Russian sanctions. Expert
assessments are based on the original database on foreign business
behavior compiled by the Institute for International Studies at the
Russian Foreign Ministry’s MGIMO University. The analysis shows that
relatively small foreign companies are leaving the Russian market, while
large international corporations are scaling back their operations in
Russia and are more inclined to adapt to the new conditions. The negative
impact on the Russian economy as a whole appears to be not as big
as the assessment based on the Yale Database of foreign companies
would suggest. The Russian IT sector, the business services sector,
and the financial sector have expectedly proved to be relatively more
vulnerable. At the same time, the natural resources sector (power and
mining industries) is relatively more stable, and cooperation with state-
owned (or state-affiliated) companies in jurisdictions that do not support
sanctions against Russia has the best prospects.
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