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| 1 |
ID:
192592
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| Summary/Abstract |
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has once again reinvigorated the debate about the likelihood of conflict spreading into NATO’s frontline states, namely the Baltic republics. This article argues that somewhat paradoxically, the Baltics currently find themselves in both the best of times and the worst of times. On the one hand, with each “turn of the screw”—Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and 2022—Moscow has ensured a greater allied presence across the Baltics. Still, despite this and Russia’s substantial losses incurred in the war, the Baltic lawmakers will not write off Russia as a military threat any time soon.
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| 2 |
ID:
192591
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An electromagnetic pulse (EMP) may be naturally occurring or can be created from the detonation of a nuclear weapon high above the Earth’s surface. Various presidential administrations have grappled with how to best manage risks around EMP threats. As this paper explains, the nuclear EMP debate is unfortunately often framed between two extremes. Some administrations have focused on naturally occurring EMP threats, such as space weather events, whereas others have focused predominately on the nuclear EMP threat, or even taken a hybrid approach here. Despite this contretemps, protecting against one form of an EMP threat thankfully also serves to protect against the other. Thus, this paper recommends that the United States Government and private sector work together to harden the electric grid from both natural and man-made EMP incidents, and establish an EMP Manhattan Project to develop national contingency plans for such scenarios.
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| 3 |
ID:
192595
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India-Pakistan relations are at an inflection point with India’s dramatic revocation of Kashmir’s autonomy and its desired objective to transform the nature of the Kashmir conflict from a “bilateral” (involving Pakistan) to a “unilateral” status (excluding Pakistan). Pakistan, on the other hand, has embarked on a diplomatic offensive making the case against India’s majoritarian politics in Kashmir as detrimental not only to the Kashmiris but also to the strategic stability between the two rivals. This article reasons that India’s and Pakistan’s dominant zero-sum strategies—premised on winning while ensuring the other’s loss—are least likely to come to fruition. Given the present nature of ties, the way forward is for the two states to engage in a minimalist framework where mutual interests, as opposed to dominant positions, are put forth as a basis for engagement. Second, engagement more than agreement should be the short- to medium-term goal. Finally, any talk during this time on freezing the Kashmir conflict is least likely to bring any long-term dividends for peace and stability between the two regional adversaries.
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| 4 |
ID:
192596
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| Summary/Abstract |
Italy was the most affected European country at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. While the European Union was struggling to get its act together and provide assistance to an ally in need, Russia and China used the opportunity to promote their own agendas. The focus of this article is on the economic and social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Italy, China’s disinformation campaign, and the uncertain future of the relations between the two countries.
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| 5 |
ID:
192593
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article seeks a debate on the future of the US defense posture in the Great Power Competition. It contains a robust list of defense initiatives to consider in improving the US defense posture. Since the United States is no longer in combat operations in CENTCOM, now is the time to focus on changing the US defense posture and program to meet the challenges of the emerging security environment. The article details where the United States stands and major changes that should be made, emphasizing both conventional and strategic nuclear forces.
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| 6 |
ID:
192590
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| Summary/Abstract |
As Russia’s invasion in Ukraine enters its second year, how is the global system continuing to evolve and change? How is the balance of power and influence shifting? And what might be some of the unexpected developments? Orbis turned to Michael A. Reynolds, Sharyl Cross, Dov S, Zakheim, Ronald J. Granieri, Almaz Keshavarz, Kiron Skinner, Jeff D. Colgan, Damjan Krnjevic Miskovic, and Rachel Ziemba for their thoughts, with a final reflection by Orbis editor Nikolas Gvosdev.
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| 7 |
ID:
192594
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| Summary/Abstract |
Over the past two decades, a trend has emerged where US partners and allies look outside of their bilateral relationship with the United States and pre-existing multilateral bodies to join ad-hoc networks. They are joining these networks to both obtain their own security goods and to provide regional public goods. Yet, these ad-hoc networks, or “minilaterals,” often include multiple US allies or shared partners of the United States. For example, the revived Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) includes Japan, India, Australia, and the United States, encompassing two separate US treaty alliances. Similarly, the tripartite pact AUKUS connects the US-UK transatlantic alliance relationship to the US-Australia alliance in the Indo-Pacific. The newest addition to this growing trend in minilateralism, the I2U2, which redefine the Middle East as West Asia by bringing together the United States, India, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), provides additional insight into the benefits of minilaterals as mechanisms for organizing interstate cooperation.
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