| Summary/Abstract |
The Russian military has failed the tests of the Ukraine war, and its leadership and chain of command are seriously compromised. A costly modernization program failed to deliver the promised superiority in key weapon systems, offensive capabilities are exhausted, and the quality of manpower has deteriorated. The ill-fated reliance on the Wagner Group was a result of this degradation. Nuclear weapons cannot be used to break the pattern of slow-moving defeat, and the resource base for sustaining the long war is being depleted. In the medium term, Russia cannot count on rehabilitating its capacity for threatening its neighbors.
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