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| 1 |
ID:
193764
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| Summary/Abstract |
Using two waves of surveys (2019 and 2021) among Chinese economists with support from the Chinese Economists Society (CES), we capture a current profile of Chinese academic economists on their demographics, education, academic rank, wage, time use, research interests, and productivity. Our data reveal many similarities among those employed in China and overseas, with statistically significant differences in pay and teaching load. More profound disparities lie in gender comparisons, with findings echoing the recent trend in the overall economics profession, including career advancement challenges for women and lower pay for female economists, among others. Finally, this paper investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Chinese economists. Comparing their time allocation with that before the pandemic suggests male economists with children were able to spend slightly more time per workday on research and leisure during the pandemic. On the contrary, female economists with children reduced time for research to cope with the increased demand for childcare.
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| 2 |
ID:
193770
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| Summary/Abstract |
Using the National Civilized City Award campaign as a quasi-natural experiment, we evaluate the effect of establishing civilized cities in China on migrants' residence intention and explore its mechanism. Based on the data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey for 2012–17 and propensity score matching and difference-in-difference approach, creating civilized cities reduced migrants' residence intention. The mechanism shows that creating civilized cities brought higher amenities while decreasing income and increasing housing costs. This effect showed individual and city heterogeneity: low-skilled and rural hukou migrants' residence intention was significantly reduced, while high-skilled and urban hukou migrants experienced no significant impact; large and midwestern cities experienced reduced attractiveness for migrants compared with small, medium-sized, and eastern cities. We show how cities affect individuals' residence intention and provide empirical evidence for the reasonable and effective formulation of urban management policies.
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| 3 |
ID:
193762
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| Summary/Abstract |
Using a unique loan-level dataset from a representative microfinance company in China, this paper investigates the information spillover effect of big tech credit scores on microloan risk management. We analyze a quasi-natural experiment where the microfinance company integrated big tech credit scores into its loan decision-making process. Our findings indicate that incorporating fintech information into risk assessments significantly lowers the default rate for new borrowers compared to existing ones. This effect is more pronounced for borrowers with insufficient collateral, higher loan demand, and medium risk levels, as well as for branches with higher historical default rates. Additionally, we observe a slight reduction in approved loan amounts for borrowers with medium risk levels, suggesting that big tech information contributes to more prudent loan decisions in microfinance.
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| 4 |
ID:
193760
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| Summary/Abstract |
Lending by big technology companies (BigTechs) is an important new financial innovation in the digital era. This paper attempts to evaluate robustness and special features of BigTech's credit risk assessment. Using 1.8 million loan transactions for online merchants of a leading Chinese virtue bank, we carry out a horse race analysis between the BigTech approach (i.e., big data and machine learning models) and the bank approach (i.e., traditional financial data and scorecard models) in predicting loan defaults. We show that the BigTech approach better predicts loan defaults, reflecting information and modeling advantages. Though bank approach do well for the firms which have records in credit registry, BigTech's proprietary information can complement or, where necessary, substitute for credit history in predicting defaults, especially for the unbanked borrowers. We further discuss inclusiveness feature of the BigTech approach and the implications for financial inclusion, financial intermediaries' businesses and regulators' policy.
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| 5 |
ID:
193775
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| Summary/Abstract |
Charitable donations by individuals are an important component of the third distribution. This paper examines the causal effect of social capital on donations by households in rural China. To do so, we draw on two waves of nationally representative household survey data collected by the authors themselves on 3295 households from eight provinces in China in 2018 and 2022. Our data show that about 24% of sample households ever donated money in 2019–2021, with the primary purpose of helping poor and sick individuals. We further use an instrumental variable approach to address the potential endogeneity of social networks. Results from two-stage least squares suggest that rural households with more social capital (as indicated by stronger social networks and with CPC family members) not only tend to be more likely to donate, but also donate more frequently and more amount during the study period. Results from mechanism analyses suggest that social capital promotes rural households' donations through the information effect, responsibility effect and reputation effect. The above results are robust to different model specifications and weighting schemes. This paper adds empirical evidence to inform policy-making in promoting charitable donations in China's pursuit of common prosperity.
Charitable donations by individuals are an important component of the third distribution. This paper examines the causal effect of social capital on donations by households in rural China. To do so, we draw on two waves of nationally representative household survey data collected by the authors themselves on 3295 households from eight provinces in China in 2018 and 2022. Our data show that about 24% of sample households ever donated money in 2019–2021, with the primary purpose of helping poor and sick individuals. We further use an instrumental variable approach to address the potential endogeneity of social networks. Results from two-stage least squares suggest that rural households with more social capital (as indicated by stronger social networks and with CPC family members) not only tend to be more likely to donate, but also donate more frequently and more amount during the study period. Results from mechanism analyses suggest that social capital promotes rural households' donations through the information effect, responsibility effect and reputation effect. The above results are robust to different model specifications and weighting schemes. This paper adds empirical evidence to inform policy-making in promoting charitable donations in China's pursuit of common prosperity.
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| 6 |
ID:
193777
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study uses a text dataset of the Chinese President's speeches and reports from November 2012 to December 2021 to construct an original economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index: President Xi Jinping's EPU (XiEPU). XiEPU moderately correlates with a previous study's representative EPU, showing notably different peaks. Our index spiked in April 2016 and January 2017. Using firm-level panel data from 2012 to 2019, we find that a higher value of XiEPU is associated with a lower investment rate at the quarterly level. Moreover, there are noteworthy heterogeneous effects among firms and periods. Specifically, we find a stronger effect of XiEPU on manufacturing sectors, a weaker effect on state-owned enterprises, and a stronger effect in the second term of Xi Jinping's presidential tenure after November 2017.
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| 7 |
ID:
193774
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| Summary/Abstract |
We use satellite, hydrology, and census data from 1992 to 2014 to quantify dams' impacts on cropland productivity and economic development in China. We exploit a county's river gradient and elevation to address the endogeneity of dam placement. We find that an additional dam reduces a local county's cropland net primary production (NPP) and nighttime light (NTL)-based GDP by 13.7% and 2.9%, respectively. We also find that an additional dam increases a downstream county's NPP by 0.5% and has a positive yet insignificant impact on a downstream county's NTL-based GDP. Dynamic analysis shows that the positive impact of dams on downstream counties' cropland productivity and economic development takes around ten years to realize. We also find that dams have smaller positive impacts on agricultural productivity and economic growth than China's high-speed rail (HRS) construction.
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| 8 |
ID:
193761
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study investigates the impact of digital financial inclusion (DFI) on the subjective well-being of China's older population, specifically examining the effects on depression, life satisfaction, and self-reported health status. Drawing on data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), our research reveals that the advancement of DFI has a significant positive impact on reducing symptoms of depression and improving the self-reported health status of elderly individuals. Furthermore, our analysis of heterogeneity indicates that these welfare improvements are more pronounced in rural areas compared to urban areas and among the non-multidimensional poverty (non-MP) group rather than the multidimensional poverty (MP) group. Moreover, we find that the impact of DFI on depression is more immediate, while its influence on self-rated health takes longer to manifest. These findings collectively suggest that enhancing digital finance can effectively improve subjective well-being, particularly among vulnerable groups such as the elderly population, individuals facing multidimensional poverty, and those residing in rural areas. The immediate relief of depression and the gradual improvement in self-reported health highlight the policy implications of leveraging digital finance to enhance subjective well-being.
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| 9 |
ID:
193756
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| Summary/Abstract |
With the rapid advancement of digital finance in China, accessing wealth management services through digital platforms has become considerably convenient. However, the potential impact of digital platform investments on residents' consumption remains a relatively unexplored question. This study addresses this gap by leveraging a unique dataset obtained from one of China's largest fintech companies, encompassing individual-level data on consumption and investment. Our findings indicate that engaging in digital platform investments can indeed stimulate residents' consumption. Importantly, participation in digital platform investment has an inclusive effect, with a more pronounced marginal impact on consumption among low-income residents and individuals residing in finance-underdeveloped cities. Additionally, the positive influence of digital platform investment on consumption primarily stems from two channels, the wealth effect resulting from investment returns and from investment diversification in a diverse range of wealth management products. The wealth effect is more pronounced among low-risk investments when risk diversification is limited, while more pronounced among high-risk investments when the portfolio is diversified.
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| 10 |
ID:
193768
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| Summary/Abstract |
Based on 2013–2019 data from the China Household Finance Survey, we used the difference-in-differences method to systematically and quantitatively analyze the relationship between a targeted poverty alleviation policy and the rural poor's subjective well-being in China. The results showed that the targeted poverty alleviation policy has a spillover effect of improving rural poor households' happiness. Mechanism analysis found that the increment of both material and non-material welfare dimensions, as well as the building of positive attitudes during the process of policy implementation improve the rural poor's happiness status. Heterogeneity analysis shows that “hematopoietic” poverty alleviation policies have significant effects on the subjective well-being of all poor households, while “blood transfusion” policies have more significant effects on the subjective well-being of poverty caused by illness and old age.
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| 11 |
ID:
193776
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study estimates the economic independence (EI) of older Chinese women with agricultural hukou and examines the relationship between their EI and living arrangements. Using the concept of happiness, the study explains the driving forces of the relationship between these women's EI and living arrangements and summarizes the effects of husbands, children, and grandchildren in terms of the economic substitution effect, economic gravitational effect, and non-economic gravitational effect. Older women's EI is very low, and their average pension income is only 21% of the local average consumption. There is a negative relationship between their EI and the probability of living with their children. Older women with no financial constraints are more likely to live on their own or apart from their children. Happiness drops significantly when older women live with their lower-income children. The substitution effect of a husband's income not only reduces the overall probability of the female elderly living with their children but also reduces the marginal effect of the female elderly's EI on that probability. When older women have low personal EI or poor health, and their children have high incomes, they tend to live with their relatively higher-income children. Grandchildren aged 0–5 generally increase the probability of elderly women living with their children. Common prosperity in China requires enhancing the developmental capacity of all people. Improving the happiness and life quality of the rural female elderly must be approached from two perspectives: from the perspective of the elderly, to increase pension income and improve the actual effect of the social pension service; and from the perspective of children, to ensure their stable employment and income growth and reduce their child-care burdens (both financial and caring) in various ways.
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| 12 |
ID:
193758
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| Summary/Abstract |
In a two-country DSGE model tailored to the U.S. and China, we examine the macroeconomic impacts of financial frictions and entrepreneurial risk shocks, which characterize the cross-sectional dispersion of idiosyncratic entrepreneurial productivity. We identify the transmission channels for significant financial acceleration, analyze financial acceleration asymmetry, and investigate international financial acceleration. Our main findings are as follows. The estimated monitoring cost for China is significantly larger than that for the U.S. Output, investment, and loans exhibit significant financial acceleration effects triggered by shocks to domestic entrepreneurial risk, investment, and technology. In comparison with the U.S., China’s output and investment display larger financial acceleration effects induced by domestic entrepreneurial risk shocks. The financial acceleration effects of foreign entrepreneurial risk shocks on the domestic economy are insignificant. Domestic financial acceleration effects on output and investment induced by shocks to investment and technology are significantly more pronounced during the U.S.-China trade conflict periods. Domestic entrepreneurial risk shocks, which contribute substantially to economic downturns, explain about 11.2
and 12.3
of forecast error variances in output of the U.S. and China, respectively.
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| 13 |
ID:
193767
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study examines the impact of a relaxation of internal migration restrictions on internal migrants' fertility in China. Exploiting the variation in the city-by-city rollout of the Hukou reform after 2014, we find that lifting barriers to local citizenship significantly increases fertility among unregistered migrants, and the positive effect mainly appears in second-child births. An investigation of potential mechanisms suggests that the Hukou reform is associated with improved access to public services, better integration into the host society, and a significant increase in intermarriages with locals.
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| 14 |
ID:
193766
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper investigates whether and how broadband internet development affects employment in China. The temporal and spatial variations in Broadband China Strategy implementation allow for applying a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) to identify the intention-to-treat effects of the increased availability of broadband on labor market outcomes. Robust results show that broadband internet development will not affect the employment rate for low- and high-skilled workers. Furthermore, broadband internet development improves low-skilled workers' contract signing, pension, and medical insurance participation by 11.5%, 17%, and 19.8%, respectively but has no significant impact on high-skilled workers. Potential mechanisms can be divided into two aspects. At the micro level, broadband internet development mitigates information friction and increases the probability of online learning for low-skilled workers. Meanwhile, at the macro aspect, adopting broadband Internet enhances firms' productivity where low-skilled workers are most concentrated (manufacturing industry). The heterogeneous results suggest younger and rural workers benefit more. Our findings have great significance in eliminating concerns about broadband investment in developing countries.
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| 15 |
ID:
193773
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| Summary/Abstract |
Previous studies have extensively confirmed that superstition profoundly influences a wide range of economically consequential decisions. However, the underlying mechanisms largely remain unexplored. Specifically, superstitions can affect either people's endogenous risk preferences or their subjective beliefs about uncertain events. Clarifying which of these two mechanisms is at work holds both policy and practical relevance. Notably, a change in risk preferences does not deviate from the conventional utility maximization framework, while a distortion in beliefs may lead to a welfare loss in decision-making. In this paper, we distinguish these two mechanisms using novel experimental methods, taking the Chinese zodiac year as an example. We find that the zodiac year correlates with both an increase in risk aversion and excessive pessimism in decision-making. Furthermore, we illustrate the potential impacts of zodiac year superstition on real-world businesses through two case studies.
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| 16 |
ID:
193769
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| Summary/Abstract |
Despite the structural change toward services that are generally beneficial for female employment, China's gender employment gap (GEG) has widened by 9.64% in the past two decades, 2000–2020, indicated by the labor force participation rate (LFP) of males minus that of females. This study distinguishes domestic demand and different types of global value chain (GVC) related demand under the inter-country input–output framework, and propose a new gender gap decomposition model to explore the evolution of China's GEG from a demand-side perspective. Our results show that GVC-related activities contributed to the widening of China's GEG by less than 0.60% between 2000 and 2020. In contrast, increasing gender discrimination toward females and technological progress with a rapid decrease in employment when producing the same amount of output in most female-intensive sectors are the dominant reasons behind the widening of China's GEG. This study provides some implications for promoting high-quality employment development in China.
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| 17 |
ID:
193759
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| Summary/Abstract |
We investigated hometown favoritism among senior provincial officials (SPOs) in China. SPOs include all officials with a vice-governor rank or above in provincial party standing committees and provincial governments. Using a new comprehensive panel of 2381 SPOs, we found that an increase in the number of SPOs born in a city does not increase the fiscal transfers received by the city and does not promote local economic growth. We argue that the absence of hometown favoritism results from the Chinese style of upward-accountability regime, in which provincial officials do not need to please residents in return for votes.
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| 18 |
ID:
193757
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| Summary/Abstract |
Measuring the digitalization effect, especially in traditional industries, is crucial for both economic researchers and policy makers. We quantify the effect and the rate of digitalization at the sectoral level in China from the perspective of production on the basis of the Inter-Country Input–Output (ICIO) accounting framework, which allows us to account for digitalization in traditional industries through value chains. Our results indicate that digitalization has developed rapidly in China and has become an important path for the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. We show that global value chain (GVC) activities have significant digitalization characteristics in China and that digitalization promotes the sectoral reconstruction of China's GVCs. By constructing a GDP growth account that is consistent with our digitalization measure to capture the inter-temporal impact of digitalization through the investment channel, we find that the growth in digital capital input contributes to GDP growth in China and several world major economies and that the effect can be significant for developing countries that are experiencing rapid growth in investment.
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| 19 |
ID:
193778
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines how improved public credit information arrangements affect entrepreneurial activities and interact with traditional informal institutions. From 2015 to 2016, the Chinese government implemented a Credit Demonstration City Construction (CDCC) program, which utilized big data technologies to promote credit information sharing and facilitate the usage of public credit information. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the CDCC program improved credit information disclosure and promoted entrepreneurial activities. We provide some evidence for the mechanism that the improved public credit information arrangements alleviated entrepreneurs' credit constraints and lowered the risks of running businesses. In addition, we find that the effects of the CDCC program are stronger in areas where Confucian culture and Buddhism are less prevalent, suggesting that formal and informal institutions may serve complementary functions in promoting entrepreneurship.
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| 20 |
ID:
193765
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study investigates the effects of monopolies in the local mining industry on the innovation activities of non-mining enterprises in Chinese resource-rich cities. Using data from the Annual Survey of Industrial Firms and firm-level patent data in China from 1999 to 2007, we find that the high monopoly degree of local mining industry is related to the significant decline of innovation activities of non-mining enterprises in the resource-rich cities. Moreover, the negative effects are larger in cities with larger mining industry, greater fiscal pressure, closer collusion between government and enterprises, officials with lower education levels and older age, as well as lower degree of marketization. In addition, the monopoly degree of local non-state-owned enterprises has a larger inhibitory effect on cross-industry innovation than state-owned enterprises. Furthermore, monopoly in the local mining industry has no significant effects on innovation behavior of mining enterprises, but it significantly increases the effective tax rate, reduces government subsidies for non-mining enterprises; and industries with stronger input-output relationships to the mining industry are more significantly affected, confirming the key role of local governments as “middlemen” in the innovation behavior of local enterprises across industry.
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