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| 1 |
ID:
171736
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| 2 |
ID:
149889
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper analyzes the implications of the natural gas revolution on the US’ ability to achieve deep GHG emissions reductions of 80% below 2005 levels by 2050. It uses a hybrid energy-economy model to test how prevailing low US natural gas prices influence the magnitude of the required carbon price needed to achieve this target. While the paper finds in general that lower gas prices resulting from plentiful gas necessitate a higher carbon price to achieve this target, informing firms and consumers in advance about the magnitude of the future carbon price can lower the necessary level.
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| 3 |
ID:
109708
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this paper we describe how behavioral responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) tax increases are accounted for in tax revenue estimation in Sweden. The rationale for developing a method for this is a mix between that a CO2 tax is a primary climate policy tool aiming to reduce CO2 emissions and that the CO2 tax generates sizable tax revenues.
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| 4 |
ID:
093469
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The implementation of climate policies in the US and EU in light of uncertainties about future international climate policy has shifted attention to two interrelated concerns, namely competitiveness and carbon leakage. Although various policy measures are available to address these concerns, there has been much discussion about one such measure in particular: the use of offsetting measures at the border. This article compares policy discussions in the US and the EU on how to address competitiveness and carbon leakage concerns, with a focus on the role of import-related border adjustment measures. It analyses the kinds of measures that so far have been put forward with a view to addressing competitiveness and carbon leakage; compares the approaches to the problems in the US and the EU; and provides a preliminary discussion of international cooperation on border adjustment measures. It concludes that two kinds of cooperation are needed between the EU and the US - not only cooperation through formal international negotiations, but also cooperation through international learning processes, in which the EU and the US learn from each other about design and implementation issues as they develop their respective cap-and-trade systems.
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| 5 |
ID:
094249
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Climate change has come to the forefront of Australian politics and there is now an active on-going policy debate about how to best reach a commonly agreed long term goal. This paper looks at five major dimensions of this debate and constructs policy options based on them. A discrete choice experiment approach was used with a representative sample from a major internet panel provider. Survey respondents made choices between pairs of policy options with different characteristics. They favored policies starting in 2010 rather than 2012, and spending 20% of revenue raised on energy-related R&D. They were almost evenly split on whether the plan should initially exempt the transport sector and two competing approaches that redistribute revenue from the plan, and, they opposed plans giving special treatment to energy-intensive sectors of the economy. A number of other policy relevant questions related to understanding Australian views and knowledge related to climate change also were asked.
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| 6 |
ID:
091698
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
EU Heads of State and Government agreed in March 2007 that the EU will reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 30% below 1990 levels by 2020 within an international post-2012 climate agreement, provided that other developed (Annex I) countries commit to comparable reductions. Within this context, this paper first explores the pros and cons of many possible conceptual approaches to assess the comparability of the mitigation efforts by Annex I countries. We selected six approaches for further analysis, which represent efforts well and are technically feasible. The implications of each of these six approaches were analysed in terms of the reductions and abatement costs that must be made by different Annex I countries to meet an aggregate reduction of 20% and 30%, respectively, below 1990 levels by 2020. The analysis indicates that significant reductions are necessary for all developed countries. This study shows that reductions by the EU of at least 30%, combined with comparable reduction efforts by other developed countries to meet the aggregate Annex I reduction target of 30% by 2020 and support of developed countries for developing countries to keep their emissions 15-30% below the baseline, are sufficient to achieve the EU climate goal of 2 °C.
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| 7 |
ID:
103440
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In 2009 the EU decided to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at least by 20% in 2020 compared to 1990 and to supply 20% of energy needs by 2020 from renewable energy sources. This paper uses an energy model coupled with a non-CO2 greenhouse gas model to assess the range of policy options that were debated to meet both targets. Policy options include trading of renewable targets, carbon trading in power plants and industry and the use of the Clean Development Mechanism to improve cost-efficiency. The models also examined fairness by analysing the distribution of emission reduction in the non-emission trading sector, the distribution of CO2 allowances in the emission trading sector and the reallocation of renewable targets across Member States. The overall costs of meeting both targets range from 0.4% to 0.6% of GDP in 2020 for the EU as a whole. The redistribution mechanisms employed significantly improve fairness compared to a cost-effective solution.
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| 8 |
ID:
109352
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
It is increasingly recognised that GHG reduction policies can have important ancillary benefits in the form of positive local and regional environmental impacts. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the domestic ancillary pollution benefits of climate policy in Sweden, and investigate how these are affected by different climate policy designs. The latter differ primarily in terms of how the country chooses to meet a specific target and where the necessary emission reductions take place. The analysis relies on simulations within the energy system optimisation model TIMES-Sweden, and focuses on four non-GHG pollutants: Nitrogen Oxides (NOX), Non Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOC), inhalable particles (PM2.5), and Sulphur dioxide (SO2). The simulations permit detailed assessments of the respective technology and fuel choices that underlie any net changes in the estimated ancillary effects. The results indicate that the ancillary benefits constitute a far from insignificant share of total system costs, and this share appears to be highest in the scenarios that entail the largest emission reductions domestically. This result reflects the fact that carbon dioxide emission reductions abroad also implies a lost opportunity of achieving substantial domestic welfare gain from the reductions of regional and local environmental pollutants.
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| 9 |
ID:
179734
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| Summary/Abstract |
The European Green Deal has established a 2050 net-zero emissions target to tackle climate change. The manufacturing and energy sectors account for at least 40% of European emissions and are central in the transition to a low-carbon economy. Thus, devising suitable strategies for reaching net-zero emissions requires a comprehensive analysis of emissions reductions achieved by the two sectors. This paper has a two-fold aim: firstly, to empirically analyse European energy and manufacturing facilities’ abatement results; secondly, to expose whether the two sectors are on track to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. We used European Union Emissions Trading System data from 2005 to 2017 from France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom to analyse the homogeneity of mitigation performances and the distribution of emissions among installations. The results indicate that a large share of installations have not decreased emissions yet, although there is substantial variety in units' contribution to total carbon releases. A smaller bundle of units (from 13 to 23%) containing super-polluters is responsible for up to 95% of emissions. The findings highlight that achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 will require additional policies that are tailored to super-polluters and also support installations that have not started their decarbonisation pathway.
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| 10 |
ID:
171518
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| Summary/Abstract |
California law requires statewide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to return to 1990 levels by 2020—a goal achieved in 2016, four years early. We conduct the first independent retrospective analysis of California's greenhouse gas emissions to assess how the state has achieved faster-than-expected emissions reductions. We analyze the extent to which economic activity, climate policies, and market forces drove California's greenhouse gas emissions trends overall and in two key categories: electricity and light-duty vehicles. We also compare historical trends with business-as-usual and policy expectations from the 2008 Climate Change Scoping Plan, California's official strategy for achieving the 2020 emissions limit. Our analysis, based on data through 2017, indicates that reduced economic activity during the 2008–2009 recession and its aftermath has been a major contributor to early achievement of the 2020 emissions limit. Policies and market forces, however, have played a larger role in reducing emissions in recent years—particularly in the electricity sector, which has decarbonized more rapidly than expected. Meanwhile, GHG emissions from light-duty vehicles in recent years were rising, not falling, in contrast to expectations. Our analysis demonstrates how decomposition methods can be used to track climate policy implementation and inform future policy development.
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| 11 |
ID:
096142
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The greenhouse gas mitigation potential of different economic sectors in three world regions are estimated using a bottom-up approach. These estimates provide updates of the numbers reported in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). This study is part of a larger project aimed at comparing greenhouse gas mitigation potentials from bottom-up and top-down approaches. The sectors included in the analysis are energy supply, transport, industry and the residential and service sector. The mitigation potentials range from 11 to 15 GtCO2eq. This is 26-38% of the baseline in 2030 and 47-68% relative to the year 2000. Potential savings are estimated for different cost levels. The total potential at negative costs is estimated at 5-8% relative to the baseline, with the largest share in the residential and service sector and the highest reduction percentage for the transport and industry sectors. These (negative) costs include investment, operation and maintenance and fuel costs and revenues at moderate discount rates of 3-10%. At costs below 100 US$/tCO2, the largest potential reductions in absolute terms are estimated in the energy supply sector, while the transport sector has the lowest reduction potential.
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| 12 |
ID:
183565
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| Summary/Abstract |
Curbing climate change is gaining increasing consensus globally. While many countries seek to set carbon prices, significant price dispersion and policy stringency continue to raise concerns about competitiveness. To address this issue, the EU has proposed a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which aims to level the playing field by levying a carbon price on EU imports. In this paper, we estimate the competitiveness and welfare impacts of the EU CBAM, based on a refined multi-regional IO approach. We quantify changes in the value of exports to the EU market upon CBAM implementation for both EU members and non-EU economies. It is found that the EU CBAM will lead to a redistribution of competitiveness among countries and regions. Specifically, it is estimated that EU output would increase by 0.38 per cent while output in rest of the world decreases by 0.1 per cent in the short run, when CBAM is set at $US100/tCO2e. The burden is unevenly distributed among regions, with China, Russia and India bearing the most. Moreover, a deeper sub-national-level analysis on China shows that, given its pervasive domestic production network, income losses in landlocked provinces exceed their export losses, contrasting with the pattern for trade-exposed provinces.
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| 13 |
ID:
171078
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| Summary/Abstract |
International public administrations (IPA s) play a significant role for the success of multilateral negotiations. As the bureaucratic bodies of international organizations, they are deeply involved in international negotiations, but receive little credit for their outcomes. By studying the administrative styles of the Secretariat of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), this article arrives at an understanding of how this IPA aims at contributing to the outcome of multilateral climate change negotiations. Administrative styles can be conceived of, ideal typically, as being entrepreneurial or servant-like. The article observes that, despite a prohibitively strict mandate as a technocratic facilitator, the UNFCCC Secretariat adopts an entrepreneurial style at the policy initiation stage and a cautiously entrepreneurial style during the policy formulation phase. It has acquired a distinctive actor quality in the climate regime, motivated by a strong commitment to furthering meaningful cooperation and driving the UNFCCC process toward ambitious climate policies.
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| 14 |
ID:
177151
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| Summary/Abstract |
Natural gas has been promoted as a ‘‘bridge’’ fuel toward a low-carbon future by offering near-term emissions reductions at lower cost. Existing literature is inconclusive on the short-term emissions benefits of more abundant natural gas. The long-lived nature of natural gas infrastructure also threatens to lock in emissions levels well above longer-term targets. If natural gas can offer short-to-medium term benefits, how much of a bridge should we build? Using ARTIMAS, a foresighted computable general equilibrium model of the US economy, we interact scenarios developed by the EMF-34 study group related to abundant natural gas, low-cost renewables, and a carbon tax to examine the role of natural gas in a carbon-constrained future. We find that abundant natural gas alone does not have a significant impact on CO2 emissions. We also find that, under a higher carbon tax, natural gas investment of approximately $10 billion per year declines to zero at a tax of about $40/ton and existing natural gas assets face significant risk of impairment. Last, the presence of abundant natural gas lowers the marginal welfare cost of abating small amounts of CO2 but is likely to raise the cost of abatement levels consistent with common climate objectives. The integrated welfare costs of climate policy depend on how much abatement we must undertake.
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| 15 |
ID:
096742
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| Publication |
2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In the run-up to the Copenhagen climate summit, the USA announced an emissions reduction target of 17% by 2020 (relative to 2005), and the EU of 20-30% (relative to 1990). For the same time horizon, China offered to reduce the CO2-intensity of its economy by 40-45% (relative to 2005), but rejects a legally binding commitment. We use the targets announced by the EU and the USA to analyze the potential gain for China if it were to adopt a binding emissions target and join an international emissions trading scheme. We show that China would likely benefit from choosing a binding target well below its projected baseline emissions for 2020.
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| 16 |
ID:
168337
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study investigates the stringency of Japan's greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for 2030 (nationally determined contribution: NDC), focusing on the macroeconomic assumptions of Kaya indicators and others previously overlooked, e.g. GDP per working-age population. It also conducts a decomposition analysis in light of historic political and economic events.
We find that the real GDP growth assumption underlying the NDC target is unrealistic. Namely, the real GDP per working-age population, which is an indicator of productivity, needs to be improved annually by 2.5% on average for 15 years, a high level that has not been observed since the collapse of the economic bubble in the early 1990s.
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| 17 |
ID:
085823
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2008.
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| Summary/Abstract |
During the German EU and G8 presidencies, energy security and climate change were prominent issues on Berlin's summit agenda. This was also reflected in the thematic emphasis of the Canada-EU high level meeting in early June 2007 in Berlin.
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| 18 |
ID:
116738
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
We investigate the impact of climate policies on Canada's oil sands industry, the largest of its kind in the world. Deriving petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel from oils sands involves significant amounts of energy, and that contributes to a high level of CO2 emissions. We apply the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, augmented to include detail on the oil sands production processes, including the possibility of carbon capture and storage (CCS). We find: (1) without climate policy, annual Canadian bitumen production increases almost 4-fold from 2010 to 2050; (2) with climate policies implemented in developed countries, Canadian bitumen production drops by 32% to 68% from the reference 4-fold increase, depending on the viability of large-scale CCS implementation, and bitumen upgrading capacity moves to the developing countries; (3) with climate policies implemented worldwide, the Canadian bitumen production is significantly reduced even with CCS technology, which lowers CO2 emissions at an added cost. This is mainly because upgrading bitumen abroad is no longer economic with the global climate policies.
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| 19 |
ID:
166386
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| Summary/Abstract |
Climate policy has mostly focused on regulating power suppliers. There is a growing interest in exploring regulating emissions from the demand side by incentivizing consumers to reduce their energy consumptions, or to purchase power from cleaner sources through tracking carbon content of power flow in the transmission network. This paper analyzes market outcomes under two approaches: producer-based and demand-based carbon taxes. We formulate each approach as a market equilibrium model. For the consumer-based approach, the analysis assumes that a utility, procuring electricity on behalf of consumers, is subject to the carbon tax. For the producer-based approach, the producers are subject to the carbon tax, and therefore, pay for their emissions. We show that the two approaches are equivalent when the program's coverage is complete. However, when the coverage is incomplete, the consumer-based carbon tax is less effective in pricing carbon emissions owing to the fact that sales to unregulated regions are not subject to the carbon tax. Given that the transaction cost of implementing consumer-based tax is likely to be high, benefit of tracking power flows in order to estimate carbon content or footprint might not be justified even with a full coverage program.
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| 20 |
ID:
117010
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
From the beginning, the statist frame of the Kyoto Protocol has invited a focus on national carbon budgets and piecemeal mitigation within rich countries. Despite the Clean Development Mechanism and other efforts to diffuse low carbon technologies to developing countries, China has over the last decades continued to construct hundreds of new thermal coal power plants leading not only to skyrocketing emissions in the present but also to long-term carbon lock-in. In light of this, China is likely to continue to put strong upward pressure on global emissions for many decades to come. Ignoring the seriousness of this situation, many rich countries have persisted to seek marginal improvements to intermittent low-energy sources such as wind power rather than taking the lead in developing breakthrough baseload technologies such as nuclear fusion. This paper argues that only such high-energy technologies, if made significantly cheaper than any fossil alternatives, will be capable of breaking the current carbon lock-in process in China and other developing countries.
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