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| 1 |
ID:
113684
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper discusses the role of Hong Kong in China's grand scheme to build up the RMB as a global reserve currency. We highlight the economic importance of Hong Kong to China in terms of channeling foreign direct investment into China, some of which, in the future, will be denominated in the RMB. We discuss the development of China's RMB currency swap and deposit markets in Hong Kong. These offshore markets enable the RMB to trade freely, setting the stage for the RMB to become fully convertible and allowing market forces to play a role in pricing the value of the RMB, and help in the development of the RMB-denominated bond (or dim sum bond) market in Hong Kong. Finally, we present evidence of the phenomenal growth of the dim sum bond market in Hong Kong, which can further enhance and strengthen the use of the RMB outside China.
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| 2 |
ID:
113687
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| Publication |
2012.
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The familiar claim of Chinese currency manipulation is generally asserted without reference to empirical evidence. To investigate the legitimacy of the claim, we ask if the undervalued misalignment found in the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) over the past decade has any recent historical precedents. Four cases are examined: the Japanese yen, the Deutschmark (DM), the Singapore dollar and the new Taiwan dollar. Panel-based misalignment estimates of the REER of the four currencies are obtained using quarterly data from the late 1970s to the early 2000s. Our estimates suggest that there are precedents to the recent misalignment of the RMB in terms of magnitude, duration or breadth of currency coverage, and that a net build-up in foreign assets does not necessarily result in currency misalignment. In addition to finding little empirical justification for the claim of Chinese currency manipulation, we note that REER misalignment runs a risk of propagating inflation in the home economy.
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| 3 |
ID:
145006
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The paper scrutinizes the spillover effects of expansionary monetary policies of a center economy to the macroeconomic policies of periphery countries, dependent on the exchange rate regime. In particular, the impact of the US quantitative easing on the Chinese economy is analysed. The results suggest that the exchange rate regime plays a minor role in insulating the economies at the periphery of the world monetary system from monetary policy shocks in the center. Capital controls, on the other hand, enable the periphery countries, in particular China, to maintain a certain degree of monetary independence in the short run. In the long run, a closer Chinese–European policy coordination is argued to create a counterbalance to the predominance of the US dollar in the currently asymmetric world monetary system. This would provide an incentive to the USA to phase out undue monetary expansion.
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| 4 |
ID:
182746
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between the onshore spot market and offshore forward market for Chinese currency around the period of China's “8.11” exchange rate regime reform, one of the most important market-oriented reforms implemented on August 11, 2015. We compare return and volatility spillover effects between the two markets before and after the “8.11” reform. The empirical evidence shows that a remarkable change has occurred in both the return and volatility spillovers. Before the reform, return and volatility spillovers exist from the offshore forward market to the onshore spot market. After the reform, however, we observe an obvious reverse in the direction and an increase in the strength of the return and volatility spillover effects. These findings suggest the existence of cross-market information flows, a change in the direction and a strengthening of the dynamic relationship after the reform. We argue that the “8.11” reform serves as a milestone reflecting long-term underlying forces that increase the relative importance of the onshore market.
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| 5 |
ID:
168133
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| 6 |
ID:
114792
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Using principal component analyses, this paper constructs two internationalization indices for the renminbi (RMB) and 32 other major currencies. We find that the RMB's currency internationalization degree index (CIDI) is still low, and far behind the 4 most important international currencies. In 2009, it was ranked 18th among all important international currencies. However, in terms of the currency internationalization prospect index (CIPI), the RMB has remained the world's fifth highest since 2006. Although it is still far behind the US dollar and the euro, surpassing the ranking of the yen and the pound is possible in the near future. The dramatic difference in the ranking between the CIDI and the CIPI is a result of China's tight capital account control, the usage continuity of international currency due to network externalities, and the narrow foreign exchange and imperfect financial markets. Hence, to a large degree, the RMB's potential as an international currency depends on China's capital account liberalization.
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| 7 |
ID:
151183
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| 8 |
ID:
065741
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| 9 |
ID:
178485
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines structural changes in China's exchange rate mechanism. For this purpose, we propose a predictive model incorporating three factors that influence the central parity rate: a smoothing factor, a market factor, and a basket factor. We first apply the model to analyze the effects of 12 exchange rate reforms since 2005, treating these reforms as predetermined structural breaks. Among other results, we find that the main impact of introducing a “counter-cyclical factor” is to weaken the role of the basket factor. We estimate structural breaks in data, assuming that the number and dates of breaks are unknown, and we find that, although the majority of estimated breaks occur within the neighborhood of exchange rate reforms, there are breaks due to other external shocks such as the escalation of the China–US trade conflict in May 2019. It is suggested that our model may be used to guide future currency reforms in China.
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| 10 |
ID:
175857
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Given the pivotal role of finance in interstate relations as a prominent source of international power, China–US financial competition, or even confrontation, could be more intense and devastating than trade conflict. It hence merits greater policy and academic attention and communication between the two states. This article takes stock of a triumvirate of Chinese views regarding China’s financial rise and potential China–US financial competition that has empirical and epistemological dimensions. Empirically, it signifies three major issue areas: Renminbi (RMB) strategies and dollar hegemony; the China–US financial imbalance and debt relations; and US dominance of global financial governance and ‘Zhongguo Fangan’—Chinese Solutions. RMB strategies to break dollar hegemony include a further three areas: International Monetary System reform; RMB internationalisation; and financial opening-up. Epistemologically, the empirical analyses present a triumvirate of embedded and interweaved angles: normative and universal; technical and micro level; and power and nationalist. Based on a triumvirate of perspectives, it argues that China’s financial rise is variously limited in relevant fields, and that China–US financial competition also varies according to different issue areas associated with different financial powers, and thus calls for a reductionist, field-specific, and pluralistic approach to managing China–US financial competition.
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