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| 1 |
ID:
127929
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2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Economic numbers have come to define our world. Individuals, organizations, and governments assess how they are doing based on what these numbers tell them. Economists and analysts loosely refer to statistics measuring GDP, unemployment, inflation, and trade deficits as "leading indicators" and subscribe to the belief that these figures accurately reflect reality and provide unique insights into the health of an economy. Taken together, leading indicators create a data map that people use to navigate their lives. That map, however, is showing signs of age. Understanding where the map came from should help explain why it has become less reliable than ever before.
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| 2 |
ID:
124198
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The author examines the proceedings of the 18th CPC Congress and China's development plans for the 12th five-year period (2011 to 2015) and draws the conclusion that the next few years will be the most significant period in the country's ambitious efforts to build a "moderate prosperity society" (xiaokang) by 2020. To achieve this goal, China will have to double its GDP by 2020.
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| 3 |
ID:
119662
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Sub-Saharan Africa's GDP has grown five percent a year since 2000 and is expected to grow even faster in the future. Although pessimists are quick to point out that this growth has followed increases in commodities prices, the success of recent political reforms and the increased openness of African societies give the region a good chance of sustaining its boom for years to come.
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| 4 |
ID:
144020
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Most observers expected the unusually deep recession to be followed by an unusually rapid recovery, with output and employment returning to trend levels relatively quickly. Yet even with the U.S. Federal Reserve [3]’s aggressive monetary policies, the recovery (both in the United States and around the globe) has fallen significantly short of predictions and has been far weaker than its predecessors [4]. Had the American economy performed as the Congressional Budget Office fore¬cast in August 2009—after the stimulus had been passed and the recovery had started—U.S. GDP today would be about $1.3 trillion higher than it is.
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| 5 |
ID:
090605
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
American primacy continues to characterise the international system, despite trends toward a diffusion of power. The discussion is too often biased in favour of multipolarity due to imprecise or misleading definitions of US primacy. On the basis of a simple definition of what a "pole" is, combining GDP and defence expenditure, only the US can be considered a global pole. The current economic crisis is not changing this reality. Even considering perceptions, soft power, and the ability to translate power into influence, rising powers like China or an aggregate power like the EU have a long way to go before they can get on an equal footing with the United States.
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| 6 |
ID:
141369
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| 7 |
ID:
129760
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| 8 |
ID:
134440
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Foreign direct investment (FDI) is considered to be one of the most important forces of economic growth and globalization. Many ASEAN economies have only a small domestic market; they are heavily reliant on international trade and FDI. Recent studies on cross-border investment indicate the importance of domestic economic performance and institutional effectiveness (including government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and property rights protection) in attracting FDI. The result from a cross-national empirical analysis, in this study, also confirms the significant impact of macroeconomic performance and institutional factors on FDI flows into developing countries. In this paper, it is argued that, with the exception of Singapore, most ASEAN countries are afflicted with relatively poor institutions for good governance, with low government effectiveness, and poor regulatory quality and rule of law. This relatively poor institutional quality may exacerbate the effects of external threats. As higher economic growth and better economic integration in other regions may divert FDI flows into ASEAN countries, their appropriate response is to improve institutional quality so that the share of FDI will increase in the total FDI inflows. Improving the institutional environment among ASEAN member countries should, therefore, be an important goal of ASEAN economic integration.
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| 9 |
ID:
137896
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THOUGH SOME MAY HAVE APPROACHED the centenary of the outbreak of World War One with a certain superstitious foreboding, 2014 in Asia was a pretty good year. As Xi Jinping put it in his May 21 address to the CICA (Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia), ‘‘Asia today, though facing more risks and challenges, is still the most dynamic and promising region in the world.’’1 Economically, Asia remains the fastest growing region, averaging an estimated 6.1% GDP growth for the year, and the forecasting consensus predicts an even better next year. This is an impressive performance in the wake of the global 2009–13 slowdown and particularly the recent cooling of the Chinese locomotive. Politically, the headline for the year is democratic resilience, with relatively honest elections in Afghanistan, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and (jumping a few days into 2015) Sri Lanka. As for international security, on the other hand, it was a year of rising tensions: violent terrorist attacks in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Burma/Myanmar, India’s Assam, China’s Xinjiang; continuing confrontations over maritime boundaries in the South and East China Seas; and renewed fighting between India and Pakistan over Kashmir.
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| 10 |
ID:
147215
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article analyses India’s economic, military and political rise in the international state system. It concludes that India is on the rise in all three power dimensions, underpinned by a larger share of global GDP. However, it also identifies the constraints on the way. On matters concerning its economy, India lags behind in industrial prowess, innovation, socio-economic development and financial strength. While modernising its defence capabilities, it faces obstacles due to budget issues, institutional constraints and a weak defence industry. At the global level, its political leverage is circumscribed by its small diplomatic corps, limited foreign aid, underutilised soft power assets and by an immediate neighbourhood that consumes much of its political energy. India’s rise could also be delayed by various domestic constraints as well as failure to adapt to ‘the second machine age’ and ‘the return of geopolitics’. Nevertheless, the probabilities of India’s continued rise in the international system are good, given its favourable demographics and catch-up opportunities related to labour productivity, urbanisation and digitisation.
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| 11 |
ID:
127583
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The service sector is developing dynamically in the world and its share in GDP is growing from year to year. According to the IMF, the share of services in world GDP amounts to 63.2%, whereby the U.S. accounts for 80% and the EU for more than 70% of world GDP. World practice also shows that the share of added value in the service sphere is much higher than in industry and agriculture.
The total volume of exported services is also increasing at a rapid rate. For example, the volume of exported services in world trade increased from $155 billion in 1975 to $2.5 trillion in 2005, i.e., it has risen more than 15-fold in thirty years.
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| 12 |
ID:
113688
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article examines the effect of GDP growth on bank profitability in China over the period 2003-2009. The one-step system GMM estimator is used to test the persistence of profitability in the Chinese banking industry. The empirical findings suggest that cost efficiency is positively related to bank profitability, while lower profitability can also be explained by higher taxes paid by banks. In addition, there is a negative relationship between GDP growth and bank profitability. Furthermore, the results show that (1) the profitability in the Chinese banking industry is significantly affected by the level of non-performing loans, and (2) Chinese banks with higher levels of capital have lower profitability. Finally, we find that the departure from a perfectly competitive market structure in the Chinese banking industry is relatively small.
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| 13 |
ID:
153986
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| Summary/Abstract |
The economic and governance challenges facing China are well known. Economic growth has slowed from the dramatic double-digit increases of the past three decades to levels below seven percent. Debt levels reached 250 percent of national GDP in 2015, and could climb to 283 percent by 2020.
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| 14 |
ID:
006964
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Summer 2000.
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| Description |
201-212
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| 15 |
ID:
132768
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| Publication |
2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Following the recent global economic downturn, attention has gradually shifted towards emerging economies which have experienced robust growth amidst sluggish growth of the world economy. A significant number of these emerging economies are in Africa. Rising growth in these economies is associated with surging demand for energy to propel the engines of growth, with direct implications on emissions into the atmosphere. Further, these economies are constantly being shaped by series of structural reforms with direct and indirect effects on growth, demand for energy, etc. To this end, this paper examines the causal dynamics among energy use, real GDP and CO2 emissions in the presence of regime shifts in six emerging African economies using the Gregory and Hansen (1996a). J. Econ. 70, 99-126 threshold cointegration and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995). J. Econometrics. 66, 225-250 Granger causality techniques. Results confirm the presence of regime shift effects in the long run inter-linkages among energy use, real GDP and CO2 emissions in the countries considered, thus indicating that structural changes have both economic and environmental effects. Hence, integration of energy and environmental policies into development plans is imperative towards attaining sustainable growth and development.
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| 16 |
ID:
155059
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| Summary/Abstract |
Power Transition Theory (PTT) has hitherto often relied on power indicators like Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or the Composite Index of National Capability (CINC) to capture its power variable. The underlying assumption is that these indicators are highly correlated, and thus it matters little as to which one the researcher chooses. I call this PTT's power consensus and argue that this consensus is problematic, as the choice of power indicator is often crucial. For PTT, it does not only matter whether such indicators come to similar results by and large; the position of certain singular actors—such as the dominant power, its prime challengers, and the top ranked great powers generally—is even more essential. However, it is precisely with regard to the positions of these actors that we find important discrepancies between what PTT's favored indicators (GDP and CINC) suggest. Analysis of some crucial historical and recent cases supports my challenge to the power consensus. First, the celebrated peaceful power transition between the United Kingdom and the United States in the nineteenth century becomes suspect under closer scrutiny, as GDP places the United States entering the parity zone at a time during which it must arguably be counted as a dissatisfied power. Second, a number of CINC-exclusive power transitions in the twentieth century are not accounted for by GDP. A few possible options might mitigate the power-problem for the cases under scrutiny, however scholars of PTT should generally be much more conscious about their choice of power indicator.
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| 17 |
ID:
103028
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| 18 |
ID:
101894
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| 19 |
ID:
057932
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| 20 |
ID:
129885
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