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| 1 |
ID:
125549
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article investigates possible evolution pathways for the transport sector during the 21st century, globally and in Europe, under a climate change control scenario. We attempt to shed light on the question how the transport sector should best be decarbonized. We perform our study with the global bottom-up energy systems model TIAM-ECN, a version of the TIAM model that is broadly used for the purpose of developing energy technology and climate policy scenarios, which we adapted for analyzing in particular the transport sector. Given the global aggregated perspective of TIAM-ECN, that in its current version yields at every point in time a single CO2 price for different forms of energy use across geographic regions and economic sectors, it generates a decarbonization process that for the transport sector occurs later in time than for the power sector. This merely reflects that emission reductions are generally cheaper for electricity production than for transportation, and that it is thus cost-minimizing to spend limited financial resources available for CO2 emissions abatement in the power sector first. In our scenarios the use of hydrogen in internal combustion engines and fuel cells, rather than electricity as energy carrier and batteries to store it, gradually becomes the dominant transport technology. This outcome is in agreement with some recent publications but is at loggerheads with the current popularity of the electric car. Based on sensitivity analysis we conclude that even if the establishment of a hydrogen infrastructure proves about an order of magnitude more costly than modeled in our base case, electricity based transportation only broadly emerges if simultaneously also the costs of electric cars go down by at least 40% with respect to our reference costs. One of the explanations for why the electric car is today, by e.g. entrepreneurs, often considered the supposed winner amongst multiple future transportation options is that the decision horizon of many analysts is no more than a few decades, instead of a full century. Electric cars fit better the current infrastructure than hydrogen fueled vehicles, so that from a short time perspective (covering the next decade or two) investments are not optimally spent by establishing an extensive hydrogen distribution network. Hence the path-dependency created by the present existence of a vast power transmission and distribution network can make electricity the most efficient choice for transportation, but only if the time frame considered is short. Electric transportation generally proves the more expensive alternative in our long-term perspective, except when electric car costs are assumed to drop substantially.
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| 2 |
ID:
097214
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article presents an integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy. Basis of our analysis is the MERGE model, designed to study the interaction between the global economy, energy use, and the impacts of climate change. For our purposes we expanded MERGE with expressions that quantify damages incurred to regional economies as a result of air pollution and lack of energy security. One of the main findings of our cost-benefit analysis is that energy security policy alone does not decrease the use of oil: global oil consumption is only delayed by several decades and oil reserves are still practically depleted before the end of the 21st century. If, on the other hand, energy security policy is integrated with optimal climate change and air pollution policy, the world's oil reserves will not be depleted, at least not before our modeling horizon well into the 22nd century: total cumulative demand for oil decreases by about 24%. More generally, we demonstrate that there are multiple other benefits of combining climate change, air pollution, and energy security policies and exploiting the possible synergies between them. These benefits can be large: for Europe the achievable CO2 emission abatement and oil consumption reduction levels are significantly deeper for integrated policy than when a strategy is adopted in which one of the three policies is omitted. Integrated optimal energy policy can reduce the number of premature deaths from air pollution by about 14,000 annually in Europe and over 3 million per year globally, by lowering the chronic exposure to ambient particulate matter. Only the optimal strategy combining the three types of energy policy can constrain the global average atmospheric temperature increase to a limit of 3 °C with respect to the pre-industrial level.
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| 3 |
ID:
017636
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2000.
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| Description |
p61-72
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| 4 |
ID:
124251
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Based on employment factors derived from a recent review of publications investigating opportunities for work associated with the diffusion of renewable energy technology, we here present an analysis of the potential for renewable energy jobs in the Middle East. We use energy system optimisation results from the regionally disaggregated TIAM-ECN model as input to our study. This integrated assessment model is utilised to inspect the energy technology requirements for meeting a stringent global climate policy that achieves a stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere with a maximum additional radiative forcing of 2.9 W/m2. This climate control target implies a massive deployment of renewable energy in the Middle East, with wind and solar power accounting for approximately 60% of total electricity supply in 2050: 900 TWh of an overall level of 1525 TWh would be generated from 210 GW of installed renewable energy capacity by the middle of the century. For this pervasive renewables diffusion scenario for the Middle East we estimate a total required local work force of ultimately about 155,000 direct and 115,000 indirect jobs, based on assumptions regarding which components of the respective wind and solar energy technologies can be manufactured in the region itself. All jobs generated through installation and O&M activities are assumed to be domestic.
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| 5 |
ID:
112424
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The article describes how over the past two decades the role of US forward-deployed tactical nuclear weapons has gradually declined, and explains the logic behind their decreased importance. The main arguments in favor of the continuation of the process of their removal from Europe, until they have been entirely eliminated over the next couple of years, are listed, and the reasons for NATO's desire to nevertheless prolong its reliance on these weapons are investigated. Further, the political feasibility of their complete withdrawal and the political practicalities of such a withdrawal are analyzed.
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