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1 |
ID:
068736
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2 |
ID:
157366
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Summary/Abstract |
Scholars generally believe that external threats drive military alliances. However, existing statistical studies of alliance formation fail to find a consistent relationship between the two. In this research note, I argue that this is because they do not correctly proxy for the existence of an external threat. Previous studies employ measures based on past militarized disputes, but a valid measure must capture expectations of future militarized disputes. To identify a better indicator of external threat, I situate alliance formation in crisis bargaining theory. The framework suggests that a target will be more likely to seek an alliance as its challenger’s probability of winning in war increases. I test this hypothesis and find a positive relationship between external threat and alliance formation. My analysis provides support for a central pillar of alliance theorizing. Additionally, it suggests that any pacifying effects of alliances may be difficult to uncover, as alliances form when the probability of conflict is already high.
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3 |
ID:
072702
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Publication |
2006.
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Summary/Abstract |
This article examines the role of NATO in aiding democratic transitions and survival in the former Soviet republics. The authors argue that the level of external threat is a determining factor in centralization, militarization, and ultimately regime type. States tend to be democratic or are likely to make the transition toward democracy when threat levels are low, while autocracies are more likely to be found in states targeted by higher levels of threat. Building on recent findings examining the link between democracies and alliance, the authors demonstrate that NATO has been an effective guarantor of territorial sovereignty and independence in the Baltic states, Ukraine, and Moldova, reducing the level of threat experienced by each state, thus assuring the survival of decentralized and democratic governments. Former Soviet republics targeted by high levels of threat have reverted to or maintained centralized, autocratic forms of government.
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4 |
ID:
153498
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Summary/Abstract |
Many researchers believed that the external threat to Russian colonies in Alaska was the main reason for the sale of Russian America to the United States in 1867. Our research demonstrates that the Russian colonies were in real danger of external invasion only three times: during the Russo-Sweden war (1788–1790), Anglo-Russian war (1807–1812), and Crimean (East) war (1853–1856). But every time, Russian America avoided military clashes. The days before 1867 (when Alaska was sold to the USA), the international situation was favorable, especially for the safety of Russian colonies. Besides, the latter were not entirely defenseless, having some military force (soldiers, navy sailors and officers, heavy cannons, and armed ships). Thus the external threat to Russian colonies is exaggerated in scholarly literature.
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5 |
ID:
131388
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Publication |
2014.
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Summary/Abstract |
A number of US overseas bases were deployed around the world to protect allies and maintain regional peace. Some bases have been stationed in the partner countries for the long term, whereas others were withdrawn from their partners' territories in the face of strong local opposition. Understanding local support for US overseas bases is indispensable for managing alliance politics and pursuing US grand strategy. This article addresses the 1972-2006 Okinawa gubernatorial elections where the US base issue had been chronically politicized and locals supported pro-base candidates six out of ten times contrary to their anti-base preferences. This article addresses external threats as a determinant of vote choice. We analyze the gubernatorial elections as the opportunities for Okinawans to convey their support for or opposition to the current national security policy since US bases in Okinawa are critical to Japan's security. We find that external threats do encourage Okinawans to support pro-base candidates, but the effect of perceived security-related risks is moderate. Moreover, physical and psychological costs such as airplane crashes, environmental and noise pollution, and rape incidents have larger influence on the election outcomes rather than material benefits such as the fiscal transfers and base-related subsidies, which is contrary to the conventional view.
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6 |
ID:
122512
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7 |
ID:
107426
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8 |
ID:
100971
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Publication |
2010.
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Summary/Abstract |
The current spurt in violent activities in valley and death of civilians in police actions against unruly mobs is a cause of serious concern and requires introspection not only by the government but also by the political parties including the separatists. The demands of separatists to revoke AFSPA and Public Safety Act from the valley and release of all political prisoners in the prevailing circumstances is neither justifiable nor in the interest of Kashmiri people. Such demands will only aid anti-national motives of terrorist outfits and external forces.
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9 |
ID:
129360
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Publication |
2012.
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Summary/Abstract |
South Asia comprises all countries from Pakistan in the West; Afghanistan in the North; Myanmar to the East; and the Indian Ocean on the south. Countries that till recently, were ruled by colonial powers that imposed their own brand of governance in keeping with their interests rather than those of the native people. It was only as recently as the mid-20th century that these nations shed the colonial yoke and started to develop indigenous means of governance (monarchical, democratic, autocratic, or totalitarian) as behooved historical national systems. These countries fell into the category of 'developing nations.' Unlike the more advanced western colonial powers, the agricultural and industrial revolutions in South Asia came about simultaneously and as late as the mid-20th century accompanied by the phenomenal socioeconomic turbulence that affected governance and its evolution in the 'developing nations.'
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