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| 1 |
ID:
150421
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| 2 |
ID:
091529
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| Publication |
2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
A segment- and fuel-disaggregated analysis of the production data of the new European vehicle market during the last decade helps to understand the sharp increase in average weight, and to introduce an indicator linking CO2 emissions to a vehicle's unit of weight. Using this indicator, simulations are made to calculate the average CO2 emissions if the average weight had stayed constant from 1995 to 2005. If the weight had remained constant, the 2008 target of 1998s voluntary agreement (VA) would have been met, and the recently approved regulation would probably have been unnecessary. Then, CO2 emissions are projected to 2015 using different vehicle characteristics and market penetration. Five scenarios have been introduced to study the different opportunities that could arise by 2015, including a backcasting scenario showing what is needed to reach the goal set by the recently approved EU climate package regulations. The analysis concludes that powertrain technologies alone are unlikely to bring the sufficient break in trends to reach set targets. Acting on average weight, through unitary vehicle weight or segment shifting, of new vehicles is key in reducing the average CO2 emissions in the short and medium term.
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| 3 |
ID:
110402
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
To investigate how fuel economy is valued in the Indian car market, we compute the cost to Indian consumers of purchasing a more fuel-efficient vehicle and compare it to the benefit of lower fuel costs over the life of the vehicle. We estimate hedonic price functions for four market segments (petrol hatchbacks, diesel hatchbacks, petrol sedans, and diesel sedans) to compute 95% confidence intervals for the marginal cost to the consumer for an increase in fuel economy. We find that the associated present value of fuel savings falls within the 95% confidence interval for most specifications, in all market segments, for the years 2002 through 2006. Thus, we fail to consistently reject the hypothesis that consumers appropriately value fuel economy.
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| 4 |
ID:
111346
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The recently amended U.S. Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards determine fuel-economy targets based on the footprint (wheelbase by track width) of vehicles such that larger vehicles have lower fuel-economy targets. This paper considers whether these standards create an incentive for firms to increase vehicle size by presenting an oligopolistic-equilibrium model in which automotive firms can modify vehicle dimensions, implement fuel-saving technology features, and trade off acceleration performance and fuel economy. Wide ranges of scenarios for consumer preferences are considered. Results suggest that the footprint-based CAFE standards create an incentive to increase vehicle size except when consumer preference for vehicle size is near its lower bound and preference for acceleration is near its upper bound. In all other simulations, the sales-weighted average vehicle size increases by 2-32%, undermining gains in fuel economy by 1-4 mpg (0.6-1.7 km/L). Carbon-dioxide emissions from these vehicles are 5-15% higher as a result (4.69×1011-5.17×1011 kg for one year of produced vehicles compared to 4.47×1011 kg with no size changes), which is equivalent to adding 3-10 coal-fired power plants to the electricity grid each year. Furthermore, results suggest that the incentive is larger for light trucks than for passenger cars, which could increase traffic safety risks.
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| 5 |
ID:
169753
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| Summary/Abstract |
Fuel economy standards are a key measure to increase the rate of efficiency improvements in passenger cars. The fuel consumption of vehicles can be improved in three ways: incremental technical efficiency improvements within powertrain technologies, market shifts to more efficient types of powertrains and by limiting increases in the size and performance of vehicles. This study quantifies the effect of each of these three drivers on the fuel consumption of British vehicles between 2001 and 2018 using driver-reported data on real-world fuel consumption. Analysis shows the introduction of EU fuel economy standards in 2008/09 had little effect on the rate of real technical efficiency improvements in British vehicles. Instead of adopting technical improvements at a higher rate or limiting the size and power of vehicles, these results suggest vehicle manufacturers met emissions standards by increasing the divergence between laboratory tests and real-world fuel consumption. This study adds to the growing literature calling for official test procedures to be representative of real-world driving.
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| 6 |
ID:
121031
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Despite efforts by some congressional legislators to pass laws to limit greenhouse gas emissions and reduce the use of fossil fuels, no such laws have yet been adopted. Is this failure to pass new laws attributable to a lack of public desire for such legislation? Data from national surveys support two answers to this question. First, large majorities of Americans have endorsed a variety of policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; second, policy support has been consistent across years and across scopes and types of policies. Popular policies include fuel economy and energy-efficiency standards, mandated use of renewable sources, and limitations on emissions by utilities and by businesses more generally. Support for policies has been price sensitive, and the American public appears to have been willing to pay enough money for these purposes to cover their costs. Consistent with these policy endorsements, surveys show that large majorities of Americans believe that global warming has been happening, that it is attributable to human activity, and that future warming will be a threat if unaddressed. Not surprisingly, these beliefs appear to have been important drivers of public support for policies designed to reform energy generation and use. Thus, it seems inappropriate to attribute lack of legislation to lack of public support in these arenas.
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| 7 |
ID:
117347
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Technological developments that increase energy efficiency result in net energy-saving benefits, provided the increased efficiency is not offset by enhanced consumer amenities. This paper analyzes the technology development/consumer amenities trade-off for new cars sold in Sweden between 1975 and 2010. We combine lessons learned from the policies in place and interviews with key actors in the car-purchasing process with statistical modeling of trends in vehicle attributes and technological development. Until 2007, consumer amenities were continuously enhanced, offsetting most of the efficiency gains of technological development; there was no strong policy push toward energy efficiency. In recent years, two major shifts have occurred. First, there has been a shift in the majority of new cars sold, from gasoline-powered engines to diesel engines. Flex-fuel vehicles have also contributed to a decline in the sales-share of pure gasoline engines. The observed shift of fuels, especially to flex-fuels, has been encouraged by policies. Second, after 2007 there have been major technological improvements, while attributes related to consumer amenities have remained flat, reversing the trends so that 77% of the technological development resulted in actual reduction of specific fuel consumption. EU targets, tax reforms, and consumer awareness have contributed to this trend change.
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| 8 |
ID:
091693
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this paper, we evaluate energy efficiency in the European freight transport sector over three decades, according to a variety of indicators, methodologies and databases. The aim is, on the one hand, of determining major drawbacks in energy efficiency metrics, on the other hand, identifying a possible trend in the sector. The present analysis shows that energy efficiency evaluation is generally subject to misinterpretation and distortion with regard to the methods and data source adopted. Two different indicators (energy intensity and fuel economy) were initially taken into account to select the most suitable for evaluating vehicles' efficiency. Fuel economy was then adopted and measured according to two different methodologies (top-down and bottom-up). We then considered all the possible sources of distortion (data sources employed, methods of data detection, speed of detection, power enhancement, size factor) with the aim of accomplishing a sound estimation. Fuel economy was eventually divided with the maximum power available (adjusted fuel economy), to account for the power shift of vehicles, that represents a further efficiency improvement.
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| 9 |
ID:
116734
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Recent estimates of fuel consumption in construction projects are highly variable. Lack of standards for reporting at both the equipment and project levels make it difficult to quantify the magnitude of fuel consumption and the associated opportunities for efficiency improvements in construction projects. In this study, we examined clusters of Environmental Impact Reports for seemingly similar construction projects in California. We observed that construction projects are not characterized consistently by task or equipment. We found wide variations in estimates for fuel use in terms of tasks, equipment, and overall projects, which may be attributed in part to inconsistencies in methodology and parameter ranges. Our analysis suggests that standardizing fuel consumption reporting and estimation methodologies for construction projects would enable quantification of opportunities for efficiency improvements at both the equipment and project levels. With increasing emphasis on reducing fossil fuel consumption, it will be important to quantify opportunities to increase fuel efficiency, including across the construction sector.
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| 10 |
ID:
091531
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| Publication |
2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines fuel economy and carbon standards for light vehicles (passenger cars and light trucks), discussing the rationale for standards, appropriate degrees of stringency and timing, regulatory structure, and ways to deal with "real world" fuel economy issues that may not be dealt with by the standards. There is no optimum method of establishing the stringency of a standard, but policymakers can be informed by analyses of technology cost-effectiveness from the viewpoint of different actors (e.g., society, vehicle purchasers) and of "top runners"-vehicles in the current fleet, or projections of future leading vehicles, that can serve as models for average vehicles some years later. The focus of the paper is on the US light vehicle fleet, with some discussion of applications to the European Union. A "leading edge" midsize car for the 2020 timeframe is identified, and various types of attribute-based standards are discussed. For the US, a 12-15 year target for new vehicle fleet improvement of 30-50% seems a reasonable starting point for negotiations. For 2030 or so, doubling current fuel economy is possible. In both cases, adjustments must be made in response to changing economic circumstances and government and societal priorities.
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| 11 |
ID:
110754
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper analyzes trends in fuel economy (kilometers per liter) of new passenger vehicles in Mexico over a period of 20 years from 1988 to 2008. Results show that in this period, fuel economy of the new passenger vehicle fleet, including multipurpose vehicles (a category similar to sport utility vehicles, SUVs), increased by only 6.3%. A simple Laspeyres index analysis was developed to evaluate both the impact of changes in vehicle sales structure by category and the changes in fuel economy. Results show that increased sales of heavier, multipurpose vehicles in place of subcompact and compact vehicles, impacted negatively on the fleet average fuel economy. If the structure of sales had continued in the same proportions across all categories as in 1988, fuel economy would have increased by 11.0%, instead of the actual 6.3%. This result coincides with trends in other countries. The paper also presents different scenarios of passenger car fuel economy for the year 2020, and its implications for gasoline consumption and CO2 emissions. The results may influence the new passenger vehicle fuel economy standard that is currently under discussion in Mexico.
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| 12 |
ID:
118818
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
With the aid of detailed automobile sales data this paper looks into changes in car attributes and CO2 emissions in Germany in the years 1998-2008, both at aggregate level and within individual car segments. New car CO2 emissions have not decreased at the expected levels because of negligible downsizing and increasing power of diesel cars. Interestingly, today there are relatively more models available with higher-than-average emission levels than in the late 1990s. We further constructed matched pairs of gasoline and diesel models in order to explore how their power and emissions ratio has evolved during the same decade. Results imply that German consumers may not have chosen to buy the diesel powered matched pair of a gasoline car they would have bought a few years earlier; instead they selected among the variety of diesel cars available in the market, and preferred a more powerful diesel car than what they might have bought otherwise. These findings reinforce the view that low-carbon transport policies must address the issue of changes in vehicle size and performance, which compromise the environmental effectiveness of regulations. In contrast to current EU regulations, CO2-related standards should discourage increases in a vehicle's weight and power.
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| 13 |
ID:
169893
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| Summary/Abstract |
Fuel economy regulation is a powerful instrument to reduce CO2 emissions of vehicles. CO2 emissions from transport have to be dramatically reduced to reach ambitious CO2 targets, but fuel economy standards below 75 gCO2/km (72.8 MPG) cannot be reached with combustion engine vehicles but require plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). However, the specific relationship between stringent fuel economy standards and PEV market share is unclear. Here, we analyse CO2 fleet targets in Europe where Regulation (EU) 2019/631 sets a target of 59.4 gCO2/km (90.9 MPG) in 2030. We use data of 3.2 million records with model-specific car sales in Europe from 2010 to 2016 to project future sales and CO2 emissions of all major vehicle manufacturers. We analyse the required PEV sales for these manufacturers to fulfill the CO2 targets and compare them to the manufacturers' announced sales targets. Our results demonstrate that regulation's target leads to PEV sales shares between 27 and 41% in 2030. The lower value is required if all manufacturers only sell BEV and the upper if only PHEV. In conclusion, ambitious CO2 fleet regulation leads to fast market diffusion of PEVs, but the current regulation is less ambitious than car maker targets in 2025.
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| 14 |
ID:
128371
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2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In-use fuel consumption data of 924 passenger cars (611 petrol, 313 diesel) were collected from various European sources and were evaluated in comparison to their corresponding type-approval values. The analysis indicated that the average in-use fuel consumption was higher than the type-approval one by 11% for petrol cars and 16% for diesel cars. Comparison of this dataset with the Travelcard database in the Netherlands showed that the deviation increased for late model years and in particular for cars with low type-approval values. The deviation was higher than 60% for vehicles registered in 2012 within the 90-100 gCO2/km bin. Unrealistic vehicle resistances used in type-approval were identified as one of the prime reasons of the difference. A simplified linear model developed in the study may be used to predict in-use fuel consumption based on data publicly available. The model utilizes the fuel consumption measured in type-approval, the mass, and the engine capacity to provide in-use fuel consumption. This may be either used to correct fuel consumption factors currently utilized by emission models (e.g. COPERT, HBEFA, VERSIT+, and others) or could be used independently to make projections on how fuel consumption may develop on the basis of changing future passenger cars characteristics.
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| 15 |
ID:
098616
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
A new fuel consumption standard for passenger vehicles in China, the so-called Phase 3 standard, was approved technically in 2009 and will take effect in 2012. This standard aims to introduce advanced energy-saving technologies into passenger vehicles and to reduce the average fuel consumption rate of Chinese new passenger vehicle fleet in 2015 to 7 L/100 km. The Phase 3 standard follows the evaluating system by specifying fuel consumption targets for sixteen individual mass-based classes. Different from compliance with the Phases 1 and 2 fuel consumption standards, compliance of the Phase 3 standard is based on corporate average fuel consumption (CAFC) rates for individual automobile companies. A transition period from 2012 to 2014 is designed for manufacturers to gradually adjust their production plans and introduce fuel-efficient technologies. In this paper, we, the designers of the Phase 3 standard, present the design of the overall fuel consumption reduction target, technical feasibility, and policy implications of the Phase 3 standard. We also explore several enforcement approaches for the Phase 3 standard with financial penalties of non-compliance as a priority. Finally, we estimate the overall effect of the Phase 3 standard on oil savings and CO2 emission reductions.
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| 16 |
ID:
069818
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| 17 |
ID:
111311
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
U.S. national time series data on vehicle travel by passenger cars and light trucks covering the period 1966-2007 are used to test for the existence, size and stability of the rebound effect for motor vehicle fuel efficiency on vehicle travel. The data show a statistically significant effect of gasoline price on vehicle travel but do not support the existence of a direct impact of fuel efficiency on vehicle travel. Additional tests indicate that fuel price effects have not been constant over time, although the hypothesis of symmetry with respect to price increases and decreases is not rejected. Small and Van Dender (2007) model of a declining rebound effect with income is tested and similar results are obtained.
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| 18 |
ID:
166572
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Electrification of road transport (or electric mobility) has progressed beyond the demonstration stage, with many Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members increasingly interested in it. This study starts with a survey of all ASEAN countries' vehicle fleets, fuel consumption and share, fuel mix in power generation, among others. The potential of electrifying fleets, including passenger vehicles, buses, and trucks – the main consumers of fossil fuel in road transport – is estimated in 2040 scenarios. How electric mobility enhances energy security is assessed using the 4A framework: availability, applicability, acceptability, and affordability of energy. The findings reveal intensive interaction of electrification of road transport with the introduction of higher fuel economy standards and higher integration of renewable energy into the power sector.
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| 19 |
ID:
091525
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| Publication |
2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
By the end of 2006, there were about 24 million total passenger cars on the roads in China, nearly three times as many as in 2001. To slow the increase in energy consumption by these cars, China began implementing passenger car fuel economy standards in two phases beginning in 2005. Phase 1 fuel consumption limits resulted in a sales-weighted new passenger car average fuel consumption decrease of about 11%, from just over 9 l/100 km to approximately 8 l/100 km, from 2002 to 2006. However, we project that upon completion of Phase 2 limits in 2009, the average fuel consumption of new passenger cars in China may drop only by an additional 1%, to approximately 7.9 l/100 km. This is due to the fact that a majority of cars sold in 2006 already meets the stricter second phase fuel consumption limits. Simultaneously, other trends in the Chinese vehicle market, including increases in average curb weight and increases in standards-exempt imported vehicles, threaten to offset the efficiency gains achieved from 2002 to 2006. It is clear that additional efforts and policies beyond Phase 2 fuel consumption limits are required to slow and, ultimately, reverse the trend of rapidly rising energy consumption and greenhouse gases from China's transportation sector.
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| 20 |
ID:
125683
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Prospect theory holds that human beings faced with a risky bet will tend to value potential losses about twice as much as potential gains. Previous research has demonstrated that prospect theory could be sufficient to explain an energy paradox in the market for automotive fuel economy. This paper analyzes data from questions added to four commercial, multi-client surveys of 1000 U.S. households each in 2004, 2011, 2012 and 2013. Households were asked about willingness to pay for future fuel savings as well as the annual fuel savings necessary to justify a given upfront payment. Payback periods inferred from household responses are generally consistent over time and across different formulations of questions. Mean calculated payback periods are about 3 years, but there is substantial dispersion among individual responses. The calculated payback periods do not appear to be correlated with the attributes of respondents. Respondents were able to quantitatively describe their uncertainty about both vehicle fuel economy and future fuel prices. Simulation of loss averse behavior based on respondents' stated uncertainty illustrates how loss aversion could lead consumers to substantially undervalue future fuel savings relative to their expected value.
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