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| 1 |
ID:
116538
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This short note defines a new measurement of housing affordability in terms of permanent income. Using this new measurement, we find that housing affordability in China is very strong relative to other developed economies, although the ratio of housing prices to current income in China is much higher than those of developed nations.
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| 2 |
ID:
109904
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2012.
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This paper discusses the growth differentials between Chinese provinces geared to agricultural activities and those that have focused on industrial production over three decades of economic reform. Following Hansen and Prescott's (2002) model, we suggest that the differences between regions stem from the resource allocation in place at the beginning of the reform process. We show that provinces with high initial shares of industrial production (the industrial club) have converged, and that agricultural provinces that have shifted to industrial production have been catching up with provinces that were industrialized at the outset. Provinces that have clung to an agricultural strategy (the agricultural club) show no evidence of convergence and appear to have been left behind in terms of economic development.
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| 3 |
ID:
118241
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The Coalition government made a commitment to review employment law to ensure flexibility for both parties and enhance business's competitiveness. This led the prime minister to ask venture capitalist Adrian Beecroft to undertake the task of identifying the areas of employment law that presented the greatest burden, and making recommendations for reform. The Beecroft report identifies 16 areas for reform, but the lack of evidence to support his conclusions severely undermines his case. The challenge of increasing employment in a stagnant economy is substantial, and Beecroft's recommendations, if implemented, are unlikely to make a difference. Businesses need to see increased demand and access to finance if they are to take on more workers, but government must also develop a long-term vision of the UK labour market and address weaknesses that existed before the financial crisis.
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| 4 |
ID:
086874
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2008.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Induced pluripotent stem cells are one of the hottest topics in medicine today. Expectations are rising for the use of iPS cells in regenerative medicine, and research is being carried out aggressively. Professor Yamanaka's team at Kyoto University led the world in successfully creating iPS cells in November 2007. He is now working to create a more open research environment like that in the United States and thinking about ways for Japan to get talented young people to pursue careers in science and technology
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| 5 |
ID:
144252
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This article analyses the implications and consequences of the rise of BRICS for the developing world and for global governance. In doing so, it examines BRICS’ increasing importance among developing countries and their growing significance in the world economy, situated in historical perspective, and considers the factors underlying the evolution of the group as an economic and political formation. This is followed by an analysis of the possible economic impact of future growth in BRICS on other developing countries, which could be complementary or competitive, positive or negative. In conclusion it discusses the potential influence of BRICS, extending beyond economics to politics, in the wider global context, with reference to international institutions and cooperation among developing countries.
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| 6 |
ID:
138137
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper conducts a comparative analysis of economic reforms in Vietnam and China to gain insights into critical reform areas that are imperative for Vietnam to achieve more robust economic growth. This study finds that the growth gap between the two countries has been substantial not only for GDP but also for labour productivity and total factor productivity, both of which are essential for sustainable economic performance in the long term. The main causes behind the growth disparity between Vietnam and China are governance-related factors, namely government effectiveness, regulatory quality, administrative reforms, state-owned enterprise reforms and policy experimentation efforts, along with induced elements such as education and technological upgrading. While China’s stronger performance does not imply that Vietnam should embrace the former’s growth model, the considerable performance gap between the two countries suggests that Vietnam has great potential to accelerate its own economic growth. The insights and discussion from this study indicate that Vietnam can achieve far more robust growth if it launches a new wave of reforms to effectively strengthen the aforementioned factors. This paper provides a suite of relevant and actionable policy recommendations for Vietnam to embark on this endeavour.
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| 7 |
ID:
161847
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| Summary/Abstract |
We propose a method of constructing a general capital stock à la Piketty for China from 1952 to 2015 (Part 1). The elasticities of income with respect to this capital are econometrically estimed through equations which also integrate human capital and R&D. The tests are performed within frameworks of modern neoclassical macrodynamic models. On this basis, we calculate an implicit rate of return of capital to test the validity of what Piketty states as a “fundamental inequality”, comparing rate of return on capital and income growth rate in the long run. This inequality is verified, but appears to be tendentiously challenged over the last decade. Then, Piketty's “second law”, arguing that the coefficient of capital tends to be equal to the ratio between savings rate and income growth rate, is examined. This “second law” is to be viewed as a process of asymptotic convergence in the long term (Part 2). These results are compared with new estimates for the post-1978 sub-period of “capitalism with Chinese characteristics”, but the fundamental inequality is no longer verified, and it is not reasonable to affirm the validity of the “second law” (Part 3). Finally, we address the issue of the inequalities in China.
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| 8 |
ID:
126618
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this paper we empirically investigate the causal link between energy consumption and economic growth employing a Markov switching Granger causality analysis. We carry out our investigation using annual U.S. real GDP, total final energy consumption and total primary energy consumption data which cover the period between 1968 and 2010. We find that there are significant changes in the causal relation between energy consumption and economic growth over the sample period under investigation. Our results show that total final energy consumption and total primary energy consumption have significant predictive content for real economic activity in the U.S. economy. Furthermore, the causality running from energy consumption to output growth seems to be strongly apparent particularly during the periods of economic downturn and energy crisis. We also document that output growth has predictive power in explaining total energy consumption. Furthermore, the power of output growth in predicting total energy consumption is found to diminish after the mid of 1980s.
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| 9 |
ID:
123901
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
AS STATED IN THE DECREES issued by President Vladimir Putin on May 7, 2012,1 as well as in Russia's national programs and other official documents currently in force,2 the tasks of modernization and innovative development of the Russian economy call for a carefully built policy of engagement with the international institutions, which exert a growing influence on the creation of the external conditions for the realization of the goals. This is becoming particularly relevant amid a deep economic crisis superimposed on the long-term processes of shifts of economic power in the global economy and amid external risks and uncertainty caused by this growth.
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| 10 |
ID:
086485
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Over the last four decades, Chile has evolved from a slow-growing state-directed economy into a fast-growing market-oriented one, attesting to its success in implementing comprehensive neo-liberal economic reforms. At least three policy conclusions emerge from the delineation of Chile's economic transformation trajectory.
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| 11 |
ID:
086687
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2009.
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This paper explores three dimensions of China's external relations. First, China can be viewed as a region-state, one in which scale and the diversity of the domestic political economy make it necessary to view the state as an interrelationship of parts even in its external relations. As a sovereign nation, China is a unitary actor unlike international regions, but it is not as uniform an actor as most other states. Second, China is a multi-regional power. Its relationships with the various international regions in which it is a major power are affected by the fact that it is not enclosed by a single region. Lastly, although China is not likely to be in the position of challenging the United States as a global great power in the foreseeable future, its stature as a global presence in a multi-nodal world is already assured. Its global foreign policy of multi-polarity is fundamentally shaped by its situation of being incapable of domination.
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| 12 |
ID:
147631
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| Summary/Abstract |
China's surge to become the world's second largest economy and largest trading nation contributes greatly to Asia becoming the world's largest economic system. China is the nexus of intra-Asian trade and direct investment flows. China's rapid growth in the recent decade relied on a state-directed investment model, akin to the state-run Big Push growth model. As in most big push experiences, intermediate term success leads to economic stresses. China's leaders can no longer ignore obvious signs of rising malinvestment, corporate debts, environmental degradation, and social disparity, all amid an aging population and tightening resource constraints. China's economic slowdown also forces economic adjustment upon its neighbors, rendered more difficult by China's policy ambiguity and volatility. Sill, China can be a positive long term influence in Asia, especially as it carries its market reforms to completion.
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| 13 |
ID:
141142
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| Summary/Abstract |
The emergence of China as a development actor across the global South has raised significant questions regarding the extent to which the country presents new development opportunities to its compatriots in the South. My aim is to reflect on and parse out the experiences and policies that have shaped China’s development to assess how it can inform the field of development studies. I argue that we need to critically engage in China’s development process, as China’s own development has led to the emergence of many more problems than solutions, ranging from increasing inequality to exclusionary development practices pertaining to ethnic minorities.
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| 14 |
ID:
170339
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| Summary/Abstract |
China's ‘New Normal’ has been much discussed in recent years. An important aspect of the New Normal is the growth slowdown from levels of around 10% per annum to a more modest 6 or 7%. Not surprisingly, there has been widespread discussion of whether the slowdown is permanent or not and, in either case, what the sources of the slowdown are. However, much of this discussion has been based on informal analysis of the data rather than formal econometric results. We make a move in the direction of formal empirical analysis of this issue by estimating and simulating a vector autoregressive (VAR) model which distinguishes between demand, supply and foreign shocks as possible drivers of changes in economic growth. We analyse both two-variable (growth and inflation) and three-variable (foreign growth, domestic growth and inflation) VAR models and identify demand, supply and foreign shocks, using a modification of the Blanchard-Quah identification procedure. In the two-variable model we identify two shocks (demand and supply) and find that the slowdown since the GFC has been mainly supply-driven. This conclusion is not changed when a foreign growth variable is added to the model and a foreign shock is allowed for – we find that demand continues to be of relatively little importance, that the foreign shock also makes little contribution to explaining the long-run growth decline in China which continues to be driven by long-term supply factors. This conclusion is robust to a number of alternative formulations of the model. Thus, the growth slowdown may, indeed, be characterised as the ‘New Normal’.
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| 15 |
ID:
107997
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
China's economic development since 1978 is one of the most significant events in recent history. Many aspects of this development have been extensively analyzed in the published literature. However, the implications of China's growth for other countries have been relatively neglected. The present paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature. The paper first presents some facts on China's role in the world economy, and then measures the impact of China's growth on growth in the rest of the world in both the short term and the long term. Short-run estimates based on vector autoregression and error correction models suggest that spillover effects of China's growth have increased in recent decades. Long-term spillover effects, estimated through growth regressions based on panel data, are also significant and have extended in recent decades beyond Asia. The estimates are robust to the effects of global and regional shocks, changes in model specification, and sample period.
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| 16 |
ID:
093847
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| Publication |
2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper presents and assesses of the contribution of inward FDI to China's recent rapid economic growth using a two stage growth accounting approach. Recent econometric literature focuses on testing whether Chinese growth depends on inward FDI rather than measuring the contribution. Foreign Invested Enterprises (FIEs), often (but not exclusively) are joint ventures between foreign companies and Chinese enterprises, and can be thought of as forming a distinctive subpart of the Chinese economy. These enterprises account for over 50% of China's exports and 60% of China's imports. Their share in Chinese GDP has been over 20% in the last two years, but they employ only 3% of the workforce, since their average labor productivity exceeds that of Non-FIEs by around 9:1. Their production is more heavily for export rather than the domestic market because FIEs provide access to both distribution systems abroad and product design for export markets. Our decomposition results indicate that China's FIEs may have contributed over 40% of China's economic growth in 2003 and 2004, and without this inward FDI, China's overall GDP growth rate could have been around 3.4 percentage points lower. We suggest that the sustainability of both China' export and overall economic growth may be questionable if inward FDI plateaus in the future.
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| 17 |
ID:
103768
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This essay makes a comparative assessment of two works dealing with contemporary India. Gupta explains why India has not taken off despite its impressive growth. Nilekani examines the ideas that have shaped the debate about India's development. The essay argues that Nilekani is more optimistic about India's future than Gupta. Gupta's book is a major work that will stand the test of time. Nilekani's book is novel in that he is an entrepreneur who became an author. These are contrasting works. Gupta asserts that growth in India has not led to development. Nilekani argues that India's growth has become more broad-based. Gupta says that the statistics behind India's success hide its underlying failures. Nilekani considers growth to have become more broad-based. Nilekani's moral vision is concerned with ideas, Gupta's is with people. The essay concludes that Indians may be too optimistic about their achievements, but India also has successes to show.
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| 18 |
ID:
089665
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Speaking in Tokyo last month, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo proudly proclaimed that thanks to her leadership, the impoverished country is headed in the right direction. The Philippine economy grew 6.1% last year, Ms. Arroyo boasted-although she did concede that forecasts for continued growth in 2009 are edging lower because of the current global economic travails. "The Philippines is finally unlocking its full potential," the president told a high-powered audience of business leaders and diplomats who convened at the Imperial Hotel on June 19. "We want to succeed someday as Japan has succeeded.
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| 19 |
ID:
179117
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Using the Feasible Generalized Least Squares econometric method, the paper analyzes the impact of climate change on economic growth in Vietnam’s coastal South Central region over the period of 2006–2015. The results indicate that, after controlling for the main determinants in the growth model, the climate change with various proxies has a significantly negative impact on provinces’ economic growth in the region. In particular, local institutions not only increase economic growth, but also reduce the negative impact of climate change on economic growth as well. These results suggest some policy implications aimed at boosting the process of transforming the economic growth model for the coastal region adapting to climate change.
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| 20 |
ID:
089005
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| Publication |
2009.
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This study extends the recent work of Ang (2007) [Ang, J.B., 2007. CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and output in France. Energy Policy 35, 4772-4778] in examining the causal relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, and output within a panel vector error correction model for six Central American countries over the period 1971-2004. In long-run equilibrium energy consumption has a positive and statistically significant impact on emissions while real output exhibits the inverted U-shape pattern associated with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. The short-run dynamics indicate unidirectional causality from energy consumption and real output, respectively, to emissions along with bidirectional causality between energy consumption and real output. In the long-run there appears to be bidirectional causality between energy consumption and emissions.
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