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ID: 110250

Multivariate model-based gap measures and a new Phillips curve / Zhang, Chengsi; Murasawa, Yasutomo

Zhang, Chengsi	Journal Article
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2012.

Summary/Abstract

This paper examines empirically the Phillips curve relationship for the Chinese economy. We use quarterly data that go back to 1978 and employ a multivariate rather than univariate method in the construction of gap measures for inflation, money and output jointly with reliable error bands. Our empirical results show that the inflation gap and the output gap fit a New Phillips curve very well. We also find some structural change in the inflation-output trade-off.

Key Words

Structural Change ; Output Gap ; Phillips Curve ; Bayesian Estimator

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ID: 071991

Output gaps and inflation in mainland China / Gerlach, Stefan; Peng, Wensheng

Gerlach, Stefan	Journal Article
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Publication

2006.

Summary/Abstract

We estimate output gaps using three methods for Mainland China on annual data spanning 1982-2003. The estimates are similar and appear to co-move with inflation. Standard Phillips curves, however, do not fit the data well. This may reflect the omission of some important variable(s) such as the effect of price deregulation, trade liberalisation and/or changes in the exchange rate regime. We re-estimate the Phillips curves assuming that there is an unobserved variable that follows an AR(2) process. The modified model fits the data much better and accounts for some of the surprising features of the simple Phillips curve estimates.

Key Words

Inflation ; China ; Output Gap

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