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ID:
133753
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2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This essay reviews diffusion as studied in large-N civil war research. In doing so, a number of pitfalls and lacunae are identified. First, the definition of diffusion as a process-whereby internal conflict in one location alters the probability of internal conflict erupting in another location at a later point in time-entails a number of difficulties for empirical modeling. Researching such a process involves an attempt to study a phenomenon that, in essence, is unobservable. It also creates difficulties in identifying relevant units of analysis, because the process involves at least two units. Second, diffusion is customarily identified based on correlations within a spatial and temporal proximity. Classifying it in this way risks simultaneously over- and underestimating cases of diffusion, which in turn generates uncertainty regarding the main determinants of diffusion. With these observations in mind, this essay ends with a word of caution for policymakers, with relevance extending beyond diffusion of civil war.
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| 2 |
ID:
072260
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2006.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Most macro cross-national studies in political science that analyze the impact of globalization on domestic policies do not sufficiently consider the methodological consequences of diffusion processes, or "Galton's problem," as it is often referred to. I argue that globalization is a form of diffusion. Therefore it requires a shift from an exclusively functional analysis, which dominates in almost all established comparative studies in the field, to a diffusional analysis. I assume that globalization leads to a shift in focus on the part of political actors from domestic to international issues. I test this hypothesis by examining social expenditure rates of sixteen highly developed welfare states. The results indicate that globalization has become a highly influential factor since the late 1980s in contrast to the years before. In addition to the actual results presented here, the methodological approach of analyzing globalization as diffusion is relevant to other areas of comparative and international politics and may be a tool in future research.
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| 3 |
ID:
109444
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Crude oil, natural gas liquids, heavy oils, deepwater oils, and polar oils are non-renewable energy resources with increasing extraction costs. Two major definitions emerge: regular or 'cheap' oil and non-conventional or 'heavy' oil. Peaking time in conventional oil production has been a recent focus of debate. For two decades, non-conventional oils have been mixed with regular crude oil. Peaking time estimation and the rate at which production may be expected to decline, following the peak, are more difficult to determine. We propose a two-wave model for world oil production pattern and forecasting, based on the diffusion of innovation theories: a sequential multi-Bass model. Historical well-known shocks are confirmed, and new peaking times for crude oil and mixed oil are determined with corresponding depletion rates. In the final section, possible ties between the dynamics of oil extraction and refining capacities are discussed as a predictive symptom of an imminent mixed oil peak in 2016.
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