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| 1 |
ID:
150781
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| Summary/Abstract |
The demand for transport services is expected to rise, causing the CO2 emissions level to increase as well. In Malaysia, the transportation sector accounts for 28% of total CO2 emissions, of which 85% comes from road transport. By 2020, Malaysia is targeting a reduction in CO2 emissions intensity by up to 40% and in this effort the role of road transport is paramount. This paper attempts to investigate effective policy options that can assist Malaysia in reducing the CO2 emissions level. An Optimisation model is developed to estimate the potential CO2 emissions mitigation strategies for road transport by minimising the CO2 emissions under the constraint of fuel cost and demand travel. Several mitigation strategies have been applied to analyse the effect of CO2 emissions reduction potential. The results demonstrate that removal of fuel price subsidies can result in reductions of up to 652 ktonnes of fuel consumption and CO2 emissions can be decreased by 6.55%, which would enable Malaysia to hit its target by 2020. CO2 emissions can be reduced significantly, up to 20%, by employing a combination of mitigation policies in Malaysia. This suggests that appropriate mitigation policies can assist the country in its quest to achieve the CO2 emissions reduction target.
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| 2 |
ID:
094878
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The production and consumption of electricity is a major source of CO2 emissions in Europe and elsewhere. In turn, the manufacturing sectors are significant end-users of electricity. In contrast to most papers in the literature, which focus on the supply-side, this study tackles the demand-side of electricity. An input-output approach combined with a sensitivity analysis has been developed to analyse the direct and indirect consumptions of electricity by eighteen manufacturing sectors in fifteen European countries, with indirect electricity demand related to the purchase of industrial products from other sectors which, in turn, require the consumption of electricity in their manufacturing processes. We identify the industrial transactions and sectors, which account for a greater share of electricity demand. In addition, the impact of an electricity price increase on the costs and prices of manufacturing products is simulated through a price model, allowing us to identify those sectors whose manufacturing costs are most sensitive to an increase in the electricity price.
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| 3 |
ID:
121361
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Hot Summer and Cold Winter (HSCW) region plays an important role in China's building energy conservation task due to its high consumption in recent years for both climate and social reasons. National and local building energy standards according to which the buildings are built and operated can affect the building energy consumption to a great extent. This study investigated the energy saving potential in Hot Summer and Cold Winter Zone under different level of energy efficiency standards (China local, China national, and UK standard). Chongqing was taken as an example, and the commercial energy simulation tool eQuest was applied to analyze the building end-use energy. With the existing situation as a baseline, the building energy saving for residential section could achieve 31.5% if the Chinese national standard were satisfied, and the value would further increase to 45.0% and 53.4% when the Chongqing local and UK standard were met. For public buildings, the corresponding energy saving potentials were 62.8%, 67.4% and 75.9%. Parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted. The analysis was able to provide suggestions on energy saving implementation priorities for residential and public buildings. Indications to improve building energy standards and their implementation were also discussed.
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| 4 |
ID:
179679
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| Summary/Abstract |
In 2012, the Japanese government launched the new Feed-In Tariff Act (FIT), which aimed at promoting the stable, integrated rise of renewable energy in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident. Solar photovoltaic (PV) energy on both the residential (installation capacity less than 10 kW) and non-residential side (installation capacity 10 kW and above) has been associated with significant benefits with the passage of the new FIT Act. However, a number of issues have emerged during implementation, including unjust enrichment from delayed PV plant operation and high renewable energy taxes. In this paper, we present an overview of the evolution of the FIT and explore how the relevant issues have been addressed through revised government policy. The paper also examines, the FIT’s effect on PV energy development. An economic analysis was conducted to identify the impact of FIT fixed price changes on the profitability of solar PV plants on both the residential and non-residential side from 2012 to 2019. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was conducted based on scenarios of future FIT fixed purchase price reductions and PV initial investment cost reductions. The results show that the FIT can potentially be reduced on the residential side and that the current FIT has reached its feasibility limits in terms of non-residential PV investments.
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| 5 |
ID:
167012
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| Summary/Abstract |
Economy-wide rebound effects may undermine climate policies relying on energy efficiency improvements. However, available rebound estimates diverge widely. We illustrate the crucial role of model assumptions of household heterogeneity and elasticities.
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| 6 |
ID:
119782
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper introduces a new method for stochastic sensitivity analysis for computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on Gauss Quadrature and applies it to check the robustness of a large-scale climate policy evaluation. The revised version of the Gauss-quadrature approach to sensitivity analysis reduces computations considerably vis-à-vis the commonly applied Monte-Carlo methods; this allows for a stochastic sensitivity analysis also for large scale models and multi-dimensional changes of parameters. In the application, an impact assessment of EU2020 climate policy, we focus on sectoral elasticities that are part of the basic parameters of the model and have been recently determined by econometric estimation, alongside with standard errors. The impact assessment is based on the large scale CGE model PACE. We show the applicability of the Gauss-quadrature approach and confirm the robustness of the impact assessment with the PACE model. The variance of the central model outcomes is smaller than their mean by order four to eight, depending on the aggregation level (i.e. aggregate variables such as GDP show a smaller variance than sectoral output).
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| 7 |
ID:
166396
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This paper explores cost-effective greenhouse gas abatement options for the European Union Member State of Cyprus, for those sectors of the national economy that are not subject to the European Emissions Trading System. The analysis leads to the construction of a baseline and several alternative marginal emission abatement cost curves. It addresses all economic sectors and considers all different types of mitigation measures – improving energy efficiency, switching to low- or zero-carbon fuels, and inducing behavioural change towards public transport modes. We apply nationally appropriate data that are mainly derived from local market information and judgement of national experts. Finally, we present results of several sensitivity analyses, which address main shortcomings of marginal abatement cost curves that have been identified in the literature, and discuss the policy implications of each one of them. Apart from its relevance for EU Member States, this assessment is useful for all countries seeking guidance in their decarbonisation strategies.
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| 8 |
ID:
166555
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| Summary/Abstract |
Energy saving is a major policy objective worldwide and in the EU in particular. Evaluating the convenience of energy-efficient investments, however, is complex. This paper aims to apply stochastic Life Cycle Costing to assess the economic value of energy-efficient building retrofitting investments. The proposed approach investigates how macroeconomic variables affect such an evaluation by explicitly taking into account their interdependent stochastic nature. Consequently, the economic evaluation of an investment is itself stochastic thus expressing both its expected value and its inherent uncertainty and risk. On this basis, an illustrative case-study is presented, where alternative designs of the energy-saving intervention are compared and a sensitivity analysis performed to identify the determinants of the LCC outcome and of its variability. In terms of policy implications, a tool providing a sounder evaluation of the convenience of such investments can suggest when and to what extent incentives may be appropriate to facilitate these investments and what possible financial instruments could be put forward in order to reduce the associated risk.
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| 9 |
ID:
072552
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2006.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In the literature on civil war onset, several empirical results are not robust or replicable across studies. Studies use different definitions of civil war and analyze different time periods, so readers cannot easily determine if differences in empirical results are due to those factors or if most empirical results are just not robust. The authors apply a methodology for organized specification tests to check the robustness of empirical results. They isolate causes of variation in empirical results by using the same definition of civil war and analyzing the same time period while systematically exploring the sensitivity of eighty-eight variables used to explain civil war in the literature. Several relationships with the onset of civil wars prove robust: large population and low income levels, low rates of economic growth, recent political instability and inconsistent democratic institutions, small military establishments and rough terrain, and war-prone and undemocratic neighbors. Variables representing ethnic difference in the population are robust only in relation to lower level armed conflict.
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| 10 |
ID:
150782
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper proffers a tiered gasoline pricing method from a personal carbon trading perspective. An optimization model of personal carbon trading is proposed, and then, an equilibrium carbon price is derived according to the market clearing condition. Based on the derived equilibrium carbon price, this paper proposes a calculation method of tiered gasoline pricing. Then, sensitivity analyses and consumers' surplus analyses are conducted. It can be shown that a rise in gasoline price or a more generous allowance allocation would incur a decrease in the equilibrium carbon price, making the first tiered price higher, but the second tiered price lower. It is further verified that the proposed tiered pricing method is progressive because it would relieve the pressure of the low-income groups who consume less gasoline while imposing a greater burden on the high-income groups who consume more gasoline. Based on these results, implications, limitations and suggestions for future studies are provided.
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| 11 |
ID:
149965
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, the scenario analysis explores the most uncertain future aspects which can cause important variability in the results with respect to the Reference scenario and provides a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies.
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