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| 1 |
ID:
099236
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The Peak Oil movement has widely spread its message about an impending peak in global oil production, caused by an inadequate resource base. On closer scrutiny, the underlying analysis is inconsistent, void of a theoretical foundation and without support in empirical observations. Global oil resources are huge and expanding, and pose no threat to continuing output growth within an extended time horizon. In contrast, temporary or prolonged supply crunches are indeed plausible, even likely, on account of growing resource nationalism denying access to efficient exploitation of the existing resource wealth.
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| 2 |
ID:
072606
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| Publication |
2006.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The present paper is an attempt to define the contours of the right macroeconomic strategy for China. In a nutshell, we believe that the package includes a decrease in saving, with a focus on private saving, an increase in the supply of services, in particular health services, and an appreciation of the RMB. This is why we refer to this strategy as a "three-handed approach": action on the fiscal and budgetary front, accompanied by currency revaluation. We start by asking how the Chinese economy got to where it is, what the strategy has been since the beginning of the reforms, and what the main characteristics of the economy are today. We then ask what is the desirable path for the future, and which are the main policy trade-offs implied by such a path. Finally, we put the various pieces together to describe what we believe is a consistent policy package.
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