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ID: 135966

Candidate emergence revisited: the lingering effects of recruitment, ambition, and successful prospects among house candidates / Maisel, L. Sandy; Stone, Walter J

Stone, Walter J	Article
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Summary/Abstract

IN THE SUMMER OF 2013, MORE THAN A YEAR before the filing deadline for congressional candidates in most states, political commentators were already conceding most races for the U.S. House of Representatives to one party or the other. Only about 10 percent of House races were deemed to be in play by the Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg Political Report, the two sources on which most political analysts rely for district-by-district assessments. Why were so few districts thought to be in play? One reason is because one party—in the vast majority of cases, the party not holding the seat in the 113th Congress—was unable to field a strong candidate. That explanation raises questions about why strong potential candidates who might be able to mount a viable campaign may be reluctant to throw their hats into the ring.

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ID: 073370

When to risk it? Institutions, ambitions, and the decision to r / Maestas, Cherie D; Fulton, Sarah; Maisel, L Sandy; Stone, Walter J

Maestas, Cherie D	Journal Article
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2006.

Summary/Abstract

The health of any democratic system depends on political ambition to generate a steady supply of quality candidates for office. Because most models of candidate entry assume ambition rather than model it, previous research fails to understand its roots in individual and institutional characteristics. We develop a two-stage model of progressive behavior that distinguishes between the formation of ambition for higher office and the decision to enter a particular race. Using data from a survey of state legislators, we demonstrate that the intrinsic costs and benefits associated with running for and holding higher office shape ambitions but do not influence the decision to run. For progressively ambitious legislators, the second-stage decision is a strategic choice about when to run rather than whether to run. Our research highlights how institutional characteristics that foster progressive ambition also increase the likelihood that national or local political conditions will be translated into meaningful choices at the ballot box.

Key Words

Political System ; United States ; Elections

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