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| 1 |
ID:
120175
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Plentiful spare capacity persists in the oil production and tanker industries, contrary to Michael Levi's contention in his response to our earlier article, "Protecting 'The Prize.' " OPEC leaders retain excess capacity to minimize cartel members' cheating, and tanker companies retain considerable flexibility that allows them to adapt to political-military and other fluctuations in the market. Oil supplies are not on a knife-edge; exaggerated claims of energy vulnerability distort U.S. national security policy.
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| 2 |
ID:
127607
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article explores the relationship between GDP and net oil exports in major oil-exporting countries. The extremely strong positive correlation between these parameters makes it possible to develop GDP models for these countries based on exports of crude oil; it has been demonstrated that they are described by a quadratic regression with acceptable reliability. The study results show that the oil industry is the main driver of economic development in the modern world. Even where direct oil exports make up an insignificant part of GDP in oil-exporting countries, their impact on economic development is decisive.
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| 3 |
ID:
073856
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| 4 |
ID:
174615
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper analyses the dynamic impact of geopolitical risks (GPRs) on real oil returns for the period February 1974 to August 2017, using a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregressive (TVP-SVAR) model. Besides the two variables of concern, the model also includes growth in world oil production, global economic activity (to capture oil-demand), and world stock returns. We show that GPRs (based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical tensions), in general, has a significant negative impact on oil returns, primarily due to the decline in oil demand captured by the global economic activity. Our results, thus, highlight the risk of associating all GPRs with oil supply shocks driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and hence, ending up suggesting that higher GPRs drive up oil prices.
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