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| Srl | Item |
| 1 |
ID:
075991
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| Publication |
2006.
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| Summary/Abstract |
China's development model faces an external constraint that could cause an economic hard landing. China has become a global manufacturing powerhouse, and its size now renders its export-led growth strategy unsustainable. China relies on the US market, but the scale of its exports is contributing to the massive US trade deficit, creating financial fragility and undermining the US manufacturing sector. These developments could stall the US economy's expansion, in turn triggering a global recession that will embrace China. This is the external constraint. These considerations suggest that China should transition from export-led growth to domestic demand-led growth. This requires growing the economy's demand side as well as its supply-side. To avoid stalling the US economic expansion, which is critical to China's growth, China should significantly revalue its currency as part of a generalized East Asian upward currency revaluation. Longer term, China should raise wages and improve income distribution. Under export-led growth, higher wages undermine employment. Under domestic demand-led growth, they support it. The challenge is to raise wages in an efficient decentralized manner. History shows that this requires independent democratic trade unions. However, such unions are currently unacceptable to the Chinese political leadership. Creating a domestic demand-led growth regime therefore requires solving this political roadblock.
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| 2 |
ID:
179258
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| Summary/Abstract |
The year 2020 was one of multiple challenges for India and for the Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party government. The year began with mass protests against the Citizen (Amendment) Act, which minority Muslims saw as threatening their citizen rights and was widely felt to be unconstitutional, and ended with mass protests by farmers against market-oriented farm reforms. The coronavirus pandemic arrived in January and by the end of the year had caused the world’s second-largest caseload (10.3 million infections) and 149,000 deaths. The government responded with a strict lockdown, resulting in a severe economic contraction, although the economy and foreign investment picked up in the last quarter, buoyed by vaccine hopes and a partial economic recovery. On the foreign front, Chinese incursions in June along the Line of Actual Control, the de facto border, led to a tense standoff that remained unresolved at year-end. Politically, the BJP remained not only entrenched but somewhat further empowered against a weak and divided opposition, with Modi’s popularity ratings high.
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| 3 |
ID:
185211
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| Summary/Abstract |
A positive start to 2021 ended abruptly when the Delta variant of COVID-19 swept over India, killing millions. Since peaking in May, the pandemic has abated, and the government has vaccinated a large share of the population. The Bharatiya Janata Party continues to dominate the country’s politics, having centralized power further despite a lackluster performance in state elections. The economy recovered vigorously from its COVID-induced recession of 2020, but it is unclear whether growth will return to the 8–9% annual rates witnessed in the 2000s. India is more bogged down in its neighborhood than before: it has been unable to retrieve the territory it lost to China last year, and the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban threatens an increase in terrorism in Kashmir. The country is at a crossroads, and much will depend on how the relatively unfettered senior leadership of the BJP responds to these challenges
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