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ID: 142267

Bayesian model to assess the size of North Korea's uranium enrichment program / Bistline, John E; Blum, David M; Hecker, Siegfried S; Pate-Cornell, M. Elisabeth

Hecker, Siegfried S	Article
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Summary/Abstract

This article presents a model to estimate North Korea's uranium enrichment capacity and to identify probable bottlenecks for scaling up that capacity. Expert assessment is used to identify and estimate the size of key centrifuge materials and component stockpiles. Bayesian probability networks are used to characterize uncertainties in these stockpiles and a deterministic optimization model to estimate the capacity of North Korea's uranium enrichment program given the assumed components and materials constraints. A Monte Carlo simulation model is used to propagate uncertainties through the optimization model. An illustration of this approach, based on the opinions of three experts, suggests that North Korea was likely (about 80 percent chance) to have a larger uranium enrichment capacity than what was displayed to visitors to the Yongbyon nuclear complex in 2010. The three most important bottlenecks to increases in enrichment capacity are the availability of pivot bearings, maraging steel, and high-strength aluminum. The nature of the model allows it to be easily updated as new information becomes available about centrifuge materials and component stockpiles.

Key Words

Bayesian Mode ; North Korea's Uranium Enrichment Program ; North Korea's Uranium Enrichment Capacity ; Monte Carlo Simulation Model

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ID: 076379

Dangerous dealings: North Korea's nuclear capabilities and the threat of export to Iran / Hecker, Siegfried S; Liou, William

Hecker, Siegfried S	Journal Article
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Publication

2007.

Key Words

China ; North Korea ; Nuclear Fuel Cycle ; North Korea - Nuclear Weapons ; China - Nuclear Weapons

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ID: 105209

Extraordinary visit: lessons learned form engaging with North Korea / Hecker, Siegfried S

Hecker, Siegfried S	Journal Article
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Publication

2011.

Key Words

Nuclear Weapons ; Diplomacy ; Nuclear Power ; United States ; North Korea ; Nuclear Exports

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ID: 190496

Hinge points: an inside look at North Korea's nuclear program / Hecker, Siegfried S; Serbin, Elliot A

2023

Hecker, Siegfried S	Book
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Publication	California, Stanford University Press, 2023.
Description	xi, 386p.hbk
Standard Number	9781503634459

Key Words

North Korea - Foreign Relations - United States ; United States - Foreign Relations - North Korea ; Nuclear Weapons - North Korea ; Nuclear Arms Control - North Korea

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Copies: C:1/I:0,R:0,Q:0

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Accession#	Call#	Current Location	Status	Policy	Location
060364	355.03355193/HEC 060364	Main	On Shelf	General

ID: 094525

Lessons learned from the North Korean nuclear crises / Hecker, Siegfried S

Hecker, Siegfried S	Journal Article
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Publication

2010.

Key Words

Nuclear Weapons ; NPT ; IAEA ; Nuclear Power ; North Korea ; North Korean Nuclear Crises ;
Kim II-sung

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