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| 1 |
ID:
076877
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2007.
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| Summary/Abstract |
What is the role of biased mediators in bringing belligerents to a negotiated settlement in internal armed conflicts? Previous research has suggested that biased third parties may mitigate commitment problems between parties, by serving as guarantors for the weakening side. This article contributes to the previous debate by distinguishing, theoretically and empirically, between government- and rebel-biased mediation. When belligerents in internal armed conflicts consider ending their armed conflict through a negotiated settlement, the government stands to relinquish authority, whereas the rebels stand to gain opportunities - legitimacy, time and access to official structures - that can be exploited in the post-agreement future. Hence, in the pre-settlement phase of the conflict process, it is above all the rebels that have problems committing to peace. The author argues that government-biased mediators can decrease the fears of the government and thereby mitigate the rebels' commitment problems. Using new data on the dyadic level covering all intrastate armed conflict in the period 1989-2003, this article examines states, organizations and individuals that are mediating in states' internal conflicts. The empirical analysis supports the above-mentioned argument. Mediators on the side of the government have a positive effect on negotiated settlements, while rebel-biased mediators have no significant effect
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| 2 |
ID:
172195
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| Summary/Abstract |
Previous research on ceasefires in armed conflicts has primarily focused on the aggregated country-level of analysis. By contrast, this article contributes by examining the local-level dynamics of local ceasefire arrangements. In particular, this study examines a novel set of 106 local-level ceasefire arrangements in the Syrian Civil War, reached between the years 2011 to 2017. Most (72 percent), but not all, of the ceasefire arrangements were respected during the stipulated time period. We argue that informal and domestic peacemaking should outperform formal and external approaches in managing conflicts with multiple rebel groups, ongoing violence, and different fronts such as in Syria. We find that the presence of insider mediators (“insider-partial”) as well as confidence-building measures between the belligerents are positively associated with successful ceasefire arrangements, whereas explanations emphasized by previous research—external third-party mediation as well as various indicators of quality of agreement—fail to explain outcomes of ceasefires. Yet, we also find some evidence indicative of a selection effect in that external mediators are associated with more difficult conflict situations. The study of local ceasefires in the Syrian Civil War can stimulate further examinations of the micro-dynamics of peacemaking in civil wars, including the causes and consequences of local ceasefires.
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| 3 |
ID:
103669
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study explores popular challenges against the state through nonviolent means. Although previous research has started to examine the effect of these 'unarmed insurrections', the relationship between challenging the state apparatus (vertical legitimacy) and the state identity (horizontal legitimacy) has not been adequately addressed. We argue that unarmed insurrections are most likely to be successful when challenging the vertical, rather than the horizontal, legitimacy of the state. Studying data for 287 years of protests in 57 non-democratic countries during the period of 1946-2006, we find support for three implications of this proposition: 1) campaigns that demand governmental regime change are more successful than campaigns for territorial changes; 2) success is less likely when the identity of the insurgents and the government is split along ethnic lines; and 3) success is less likely when society is highly polarized along ethnic lines rather than being ethnically homogeneous. Thus, when the community is divided, the efforts to withdraw consent will be less effective. The study discusses the implications of these findings for policymakers and scholars interested in nonviolent strategic action.
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| 4 |
ID:
084349
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2008.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Third-party actors who mediate or monitor peace often strive to uphold an image of neutrality. Yet, they commonly face accusations of partiality. The Nordic engagement in the Sri Lankan peace process is an illustration of this puzzle: despite the efforts to uphold an image of being neutral mediators and monitors, they have been seen as favoring one side or the other. This article suggests that part of the explanation for their failure to be seen as neutral lies in the fact that armed conflicts are characterized by certain asymmetries between the main antagonists - in capabilities, status and behavior. These imbalances pose particular challenges to the third party aspiring to act in a neutral manner. We suggest that third parties have two strategies available to deal with imbalances in the relationship between the contenders: 1) they can choose to disregard the asymmetrical relationship and act in an even-handed manner or 2) they can seek to counterbalance the lopsidedness. This article explores the dynamics of these strategies by analyzing the Nordic involvement in Sri Lanka's peace process that began in 2002.
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| 5 |
ID:
084485
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| Publication |
2008.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Third-party actors who mediate or monitor peace often strive to uphold an image of neutrality. Yet, they commonly face accusations of partiality. The Nordic engagement in the Sri Lankan peace process is an illustration of this puzzle: despite the efforts to uphold an image of being neutral mediators and monitors, they have been seen as favoring one side or the other. This article suggests that part of the explanation for their failure to be seen as neutral lies in the fact that armed conflicts are characterized by certain asymmetries between the main antagonists - in capabilities, status and behavior. These imbalances pose particular challenges to the third party aspiring to act in a neutral manner. We suggest that third parties have two strategies available to deal with imbalances in the relationship between the contenders: 1) they can choose to disregard the asymmetrical relationship and act in an even-handed manner or 2) they can seek to counterbalance the lopsidedness. This article explores the dynamics of these strategies by analyzing the Nordic involvement in Sri Lanka's peace process that began in 2002.
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| 6 |
ID:
124107
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The growing field of peacebuilding has tried to mitigate interethnic conflicts by creating various sorts of dialogue programs, aiming to build social bonds and bridges between individuals from groups with a history of violent interaction. Yet, little is known of the effect of dialogue initiatives on interethnic relations and peacebuilding. Previous research on dialogue programs has suffered from the serious problem of selection bias: in other words, by not having comparable control groups it has not been possible to separate selection effects (that a program attracts certain types of people) from process effects (that programs have an effect on people). The present study is the first to examine the effects of a dialogue process in a context of political tension and ethnic violence through a randomized field experiment, thereby eliminating this problem. Using a stratified randomization process, participants were selected to a two-term Sustained Dialogue program at Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia, in 2009-10. Immediately following the dialogue intervention, an attitudinal survey and a behavioral trust game were conducted with a group of 716 participants and non-participants. We found that the program had a positive effect on participants' attitudes: it worked for decreasing mistrust and increasing the level of trust between people of different ethnic origins. Concurrently, however, participation in the dialogue program increased the sense of importance of ethnic identities as well as the perception of being ethnically discriminated - a somewhat counter-intuitive finding. Participation in dialogue processes had no significant effect on game behavior: participants in Sustained Dialogue were neither more trusting nor trustworthy than non-participants. This study shows the fruitfulness of randomized field-experiments in the area of peace and conflict research and finishes by identifying some important paths for future research.
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| 7 |
ID:
159865
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This article introduces the Religion and Armed Conflict (RELAC) data, 1975 to 2015, which is a new data set suitable for analyzing the causes, dynamics, and resolution of religious conflicts. It contains information about key religious dimensions of conflicts: whether the issue at stake is religious, the actors’ religious identity, and fine-grained data about the type and salience of religious claims. The article presents the major features of the data set and describes patterns and trends that shed new light on religious conflicts, for example, by demonstrating that conflicts over Islamist claims have become more prevalent. We also illustrate the utility of the data. For instance, we show that there is great variation in lethality across conflicts with different types of Islamist claims, thereby offering a more nuanced understanding of the deadliness of religious conflicts. RELAC should be a valuable resource for scholars, examining religious dimensions of intrastate armed conflicts.
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| 8 |
ID:
190420
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| Summary/Abstract |
Why do some non-violent uprisings escalate into armed violence while others do not? We suggest that horizontal polarisation contributes to the escalation of non-violent campaigns. We examine the effect of ethnic cleavages between the campaign and its opponent and movement cohesion as explanatory factors for escalation into civil war and non-state violence. Statistical analysis of all major non-violent campaigns (1970–2014) shows that non-violent conflicts with ethnic cleavages have a higher risk of escalating into armed violence in particular, when the conflict takes place over governmental aims. The results also indicate that movement cohesion alleviates the risk of armed escalation.
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| 9 |
ID:
134150
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2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The use of violent coercion to repress unarmed protests, such as that seen during the Arab Spring, sometimes backfires on the government - an outcome called 'political jiu-jitsu'. Examining unique global data covering extreme violence used by governments against unarmed protests from 1989 to 2011 (drawn from UCDP) and the Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes (NAVCO) data, this study aims to explain the conditions under which this outcome occurs. This study contributes to both the nonviolent action and one-sided violence literatures by further disaggregating this effect into both domestic and international outcomes, a distinction that has not previously been made in empirical studies. We find evidence that a pre-existing campaign infrastructure increases the likelihood of increased domestic mobilization and security defections after violent repression, but is unrelated to international backlash. Within ongoing NAVCO campaigns we find that parallel media institutions increase the likelihood of increased domestic mobilization and international repercussions after repression, and that this effect holds true for both traditional media and 'new' (i.e. internet-based) media. One of the novel contributions of this study is that we identify an important selection effect in the NAVCO data and the critical role of organizational infrastructure, especially communications infrastructure, in generating preference changes that create the conditions where killing unarmed civilians becomes costly for repressive governments. We conclude with a discussion of the potential implications of this study and avenues for future research.
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| 10 |
ID:
079923
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| Publication |
2007.
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| Summary/Abstract |
A growing literature has started to explore the relationship between religious dimensions and the escalation, duration, and termination of armed conflicts. This study explores the conditions for negotiated settlements. The author argues that if the belligerents' demands are explicitly anchored in a religious tradition, they will come to perceive the conflicting issues as indivisible, and the conflict will be less likely to be settled through negotiations. Utilizing unique data on the primary parties' religious demands and identities, all intrastate conflict-dyads in the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), 1989-2003, are examined. The study finds that if governments or rebel-groups have made explicit religious claims, these conflict-dyads are significantly less likely than others to be terminated through negotiated settlement. By contrast, whether the primary parties come from different religious traditions does not affect the chances for negotiated settlement
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| 11 |
ID:
106364
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
One of the most important debates in the field of peace and conflict research concerns whether wars and armed conflicts are declining over time. The region where this plays out most markedly is East Asia: having suffered some of the world's most brutal wars in the period prior to 1979, the region has since witnessed an era of relative peacefulness. This article asks whether the decline in the level of war in the region reflects a change in the means used to pursue conflicts: are conflicts that previously were fought with arms increasingly manifested through unarmed uprisings based on strategic nonviolent actions? Examining the empirical patterns of armed conflicts and unarmed uprisings in the region, the article shows that there has been a substantial increase in the number of unarmed uprisings in East Asia that runs parallel with a decrease in the intensity and frequency of warfare. Yet, the article also shows that these nonviolent uprisings do not follow on from previous armed campaigns, and that armed and unarmed campaigns differ in terms of aims, nature and outcome. Thus, the article concludes that there is little support for the hypothesis that those who formerly used violence have shifted to new nonviolent, unarmed tactics, and that we are rather witnessing two parallel, unrelated processes. These insights call for an enlargement of the research agenda of the 'East Asian peace'.
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| 12 |
ID:
103788
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Conventional wisdom suggests that armed conflicts with religious dimensions are inherently difficult to end. Religious appeals seem to make conflict issues indivisible. Yet, religious conflicts do end. In order to understand this puzzle, there is a need to examine the empirical records of the termination process of these types of armed conflicts. In this study, we argue that there is a potential for conflict resolution of religious conflicts without necessarily requiring concessions on the core beliefs and aspirations. We explore this proposition by examining the empirical pattern of Asian armed conflicts with explicit religious dimensions as stated incompatible positions and scrutinize how they are ended. Our empirical analysis reveals that none of the parties raising religious demands has made concessions on those demands. Yet, in about half of the cases, there are accommodations that do not imply concessions on the religious goals. Based on these findings, the study draws out the potential implications for the debate about the role of religion, armed conflicts, and peaceful resolution.
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| 13 |
ID:
165681
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Previous quantitative mediation research has relied on generalized measurements of “mediation success,” such as agreements, ceasefires or peace durability. However, these measurements of success do not take into account what mediators were mandated to achieve. We propose benchmarking outcomes against the explicit mandates of the interventions, a novel way of conceptualizing mediation success. Utilizing data on the agendas of mediated negotiations in intrastate armed conflicts in Africa between 1990 and 2010 as a proxy for mediation mandates, we examine the relative effectiveness of manipulation as a mediation strategy. The study shows, in contrast to previous research, that third party manipulation does not have a significant effect on whether the goal of a given round of negotiations is achieved and, that under some circumstances, may decrease the likelihood of mediation success. We discuss the opportunities as well as limitations of a mandate-based approach to the study of mediation success.
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| 14 |
ID:
133153
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2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Two characteristics of mediators - bias and leverage - are discussed intensively in the research on international mediation. However, whereas bias and leverage have been examined in mediation by states, relatively little is known about their role in mediation by international organizations (ios). This study provides new ways of conceptualizing io bias and leverage and utilizes unique data to measure the impact of io bias and leverage on mediation outcomes. Exploring all cases of civil war mediation by ios in the period 1975-2004, we find that ios where member states provide support to both sides in a conflict outperform ios whose member states remain disinterested. ios with significant trade leverage also increase the likelihood of mediation success. The study demonstrates that ios rarely have a neutral relationship to civil war combatants, that mediation by ios is laden with member state interests, and that such interests shape outcomes.
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| 15 |
ID:
143347
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| Summary/Abstract |
A growing research field examines the conditions under which major nonviolent resistance campaigns—that is, popular nonviolent uprisings for regime or territorial change—are successful. Why these campaigns emerge in the first place is less well understood. We argue that extensive social networks that are economically interdependent with the state make strategic nonviolence more feasible. These networks are larger and more powerful in states whose economies rely upon organized labor. Global quantitative analysis of the onset of violent and nonviolent campaigns from 1960 to 2006 (NAVCO), and major protest events in Africa from 1990 to 2009 (SCAD) shows that the likelihood of nonviolent conflict onset increases with the proportion of manufacturing to gross domestic product. This study points to a link between modernization and social conflict, a link that has been often hypothesized, but, hitherto, unsupported by empirical studies.
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| 16 |
ID:
088485
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2009.
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Sri Lanka has suffered from one of Asia's most intractable civil wars, and is remarkably resistant to resolution. The peace process was initiated with a ceasefire between the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and the Sri Lankan Government in 2002. This article explores the implications of the Norwegian mediation on this process. We argue that Norway's aspiration to promote an image of being a global peacemaker and the consent from regional and global powers are important in explaining why Norway became involved. Moreover, the Norwegian mediation approach - based on impartiality, ownership by the two main parties, and internationalization - has had consequences for how the process has unfolded. For instance, it influenced the potential leverage of Norway and conceptions about bias. This article contributes to an understanding of how regional and global processes, as well as mediator characteristics and approaches, influence the dynamics of civil war termination.
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| 17 |
ID:
079003
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2007.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Mediation research has for a long time been divided on whether 'power mediators' or 'pure mediators' are preferred as peace brokers in armed conflicts. This study contributes by drawing a broader empirical picture of international mediation in civil wars. It is argued that these approaches to international mediation are complementary rather than contradictory, and that combining power mediators with pure mediators should be the best way of enhancing the prospect of mediation success. Using data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program on internal armed conflicts (1989-2003), the study examines and compares the effect of power mediators with pure mediators on different kinds of mediation outcomes: (1) the likelihood that parties reach agreements and (2) the provisions of those agreements. The study finds that although all types of mediators have a positive effect in terms of reaching agreements, power mediators outperform pure mediators. Most effective are the mediation attempts when both power and pure mediators are active as third parties. Examining the content of agreements, the study finds that pure mediators are more effective in reaching political and territorial power sharing provisions, whereas power mediators are more likely to be associated with military pacts
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| 18 |
ID:
126013
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines the religious dimensions of armed conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region where the monotheistic religions of Judaism, Islam, and Christianity traditionally dominate. Applying a regional perspective, this study finds that about half of the armed conflicts in the MENA region were between parties, where at least one side had made explicit reference to religion in their basic demands, and this category of conflicts has increased substantially over time. Why are religious civil wars becoming relatively more common over time in the MENA region? I argue that the relatively high frequency of religious armed intrastate conflicts in the region can be explained by three major empirical regularities: (1) the intractability of interreligious conflicts; (2) the spread of several but relatively shorter intrareligious disputes; and (3) the increasingly transnational aspect of religious disputes in the MENA region. Although these trends have been countered by the emergence of institutional settlements of some of the armed conflicts, these types of conflict management and conflict resolution attempts have, so far, been too few to generate a general shift in the basic empirical patterns. This paper provides an empirical overview over the main patterns and ends by identifying some important avenues for future research.
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| 19 |
ID:
105956
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2011.
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How can the international community influence belligerents in internal armed conflict to move towards peace? Research on influence strategies in international relations commonly stresses the importance of a combined 'carrot-and-sticks' approach, yet little is known about how this mixed strategy is best applied in the context of internal armed conflict. The article addresses this question by developing a theoretical framework exploring the conditions under which the mixed approach is successful in influencing conflict actors and by focusing specifically on non-state actors. It is argued that the effectiveness of the contrast strategy in dealing with non-state actors depends on the balance between the 'good cop' approach and the 'bad cop' approach, the perceptions of the targets and contextual adoption of the sequencing of strategies. We apply this framework to the case of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka between 2002 and 2008, when the international community's initial success later turned into a failed attempt to influence the LTTE in the direction of respect for human rights, in ending the violation of the ceasefire and in preventing a return to the battlefield.
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| 20 |
ID:
128875
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2014.
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Mediation, as a means to end armed conflicts, has gained prominence particularly in the past 25 years. This article reviews peace mediation research to date, with a particular focus on quantitative studies as well as on significant theoretical and conceptual works. The growing literature on international mediation has made considerable progress towards understanding the conditions under which mediation processes help bring armed conflicts to peaceful ends. Still, the field of international mediation faces a number of problems. In this article, we aim to identify findings on mediation frequency, strategies, bias, and coordination as well as on trends in defining success. Although previous research has generated important insights, there are still unresolved issues and discrepancies which future mediation research needs to explore. Many of the challenges that the field faces could be managed by giving greater attention to accumulative knowledge production, more disaggregated analysis, and a closer dialogue between policy and research.
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