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| 1 |
ID:
113687
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The familiar claim of Chinese currency manipulation is generally asserted without reference to empirical evidence. To investigate the legitimacy of the claim, we ask if the undervalued misalignment found in the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) over the past decade has any recent historical precedents. Four cases are examined: the Japanese yen, the Deutschmark (DM), the Singapore dollar and the new Taiwan dollar. Panel-based misalignment estimates of the REER of the four currencies are obtained using quarterly data from the late 1970s to the early 2000s. Our estimates suggest that there are precedents to the recent misalignment of the RMB in terms of magnitude, duration or breadth of currency coverage, and that a net build-up in foreign assets does not necessarily result in currency misalignment. In addition to finding little empirical justification for the claim of Chinese currency manipulation, we note that REER misalignment runs a risk of propagating inflation in the home economy.
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| 2 |
ID:
097831
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Consistency is essential in statistical data processing. This paper reports some notable discrepancies in China's GDP accounting, which are unexpectedly found after testing the consistency of GDP accounting and its components. Although these discrepancies are mainly attributed to the revision methodology adopted after the 2004 economic census, the intention to harmonize GDP accounting data, in terms of production and expenditure, also contributes to the discrepancies. Our finding highlights the need for careful checking of consistency and for testing before formal release of any official statistics.
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| 3 |
ID:
076890
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2007.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper presents a detailed analysis of the Chinese saving rate based on the flow of funds data. It finds that the most widely adopted view of precautionary saving, which is regarded as the top reason for maintaining a high saving rate in China, is misleading because this conclusion is drawn from the household survey data. In fact, the household saving rate has declined dramatically since the mid-1990s, as is observed from the flow of funds framework. The high national saving rate is attributed to the increasing shares of both government and corporation disposable incomes. Insufficient consumption demand is caused by the persistent decrease in percentage share of household to national disposable income. Government- directed income redistribution urgently needs to be improved to accelerate consumption, which in turn would make the Chinese economy less investment-led and help to reduce the current account surplus
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