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| 1 |
ID:
076893
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2007.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Agricultural trade policy in China has been the subject of heated discussion since China's accession to the WTO. Studies have been carried out and propositions put forth regarding comparative advantage, food security, development of the industry, and farmers' income. In this paper, we attempt to provide an analysis from another important perspective: resource mobility, which is an essential assumption in free trade theory. By examining the mobility of different production resources in Chinese agriculture, namely natural resources, capital inputs, human resources and institutional arrangements, we found that for most production resources in Chinese agriculture, mobility is low. The results have significant policy implications in two respects: first, protective measures in the transitional period for certain crops in certain areas in China are legitimate and necessary to ensure social stability; and second, policy instruments to improve resource mobility in Chinese agricultural should be explored and implemented to realize more trade benefit in the future.
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| 2 |
ID:
116523
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Most existing studies of food demand focus on economic factors, such as income and price. Physical factors which determine human energy intake requirement, given economic conditions, such as gender and age structures of the population as well as occupation, are usually not incorporated. While this is appropriate in the situation of a continuous, stable development of demographic structure, it might lead to biased result if drastic and irregular demographic changes have taken place. This paper provides a case study of China of the impact of demographic dynamics on the change of physical requirement and energy intake demand. The unique population pyramid in China, resulted from the big famine in the early 1960s and then the "One Child" policy" starting from the 1980s, has led to the irregular evolution of age groups and the consequent changes in the proportion of the "big-eaters". As a result, given food price and income, the very age structure of the population at the time affects the overall weighted energy intake level of the population significantly. Using household survey data ranging from year 1991 to 2009, the index of Adult Male Equivalent Scale (AMES) is constructed to reflect the varying per capita physical requirement resulted from the demographic dynamic over the years in China. The AMES index, together with food price and income, has been applied to the per capita energy intake model. The empirical results show that the AMES index has statically strong impact on per capita energy intake, and the inclusion of the AMES index into the model has improved the model fitness. This finding sheds light on a possible way for improvement in projecting China's food demand in the future by incorporating the country's changing demographic factors.
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| 3 |
ID:
168768
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| Summary/Abstract |
China's grain sectors have faced unprecedented challenges in recent years as the ever‐increasing and historically high level of grain output has failed to reduce grain imports. On the contrary, high grain imports and high domestic stock have accompanied historically high domestic output, a situation dubbed the “triple high” phenomenon in current policy discussion. This paper explores the role of widening domestic–world market price gaps in determining the triple high phenomenon. Unlike earlier studies that relied on production capacities, this paper argues that domestic production and demand (hence imports) are functions of domestic and world market prices and proposes an analytical framework to explicitly capture such price gaps under restricted trade linkages in general equilibrium. Following this approach, a set of price scenarios for the 2011–2020 period are constructed and simulated in a computable general equilibrium model. Results from the core scenarios, in which recent domestic and world market price trends are assumed to continue, suggest that further widening price gaps would substantially increase grain imports and reduce domestic output (by 60 million tons) and self‐sufficiency ratios from base levels. In the alternative scenarios with larger (smaller) price gaps, we find higher (lower) imports and larger (smaller) decreases in domestic output and self‐sufficiency ratios. Such results provide important policy implications as China's agricultural policy undergoes significant adjustment.
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