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| Srl | Item |
| 1 |
ID:
078039
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| Publication |
2007.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In the presence of de jure capital account inconvertibility, but in spite of high trade openness of China, existing empirical work, using daily data, has not found any evidence of international financial integration of its A-share market. In this paper we shed new light on this issue, examining a long sample of active trading, over 1992-2005, within the framework of a regime-switching error correction model, with a major focus on the role of temporal aggregation. With end-of-week closing prices we do not find any long run relationship between the Shanghai market and either the New York or the Hong Kong market, thus replicating previous findings. However, with weekly-averaged indices, up to late 1996, the Shanghai index was cointegrated with the S&P 500. Subsequently, this relationship broke down and a long run relationship with the Hang Seng index gradually arose. Information flows, as well as the prospects of de jure financial opening, and the growing awareness of valuation concepts among Chinese domestic investors, in the presence of identical fundamentals (multiple listing of Mainland firms), help explain the evidence of long run financial integration in spite of capital controls
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| 2 |
ID:
159022
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| Summary/Abstract |
The “global slack hypothesis” implies that greater integration of the world economy, i.e. globalisation, should have made inflation more responsive to global than domestic economic slack. Many previous studies have accordingly estimated national inflation equations with measures of global output gaps. We use three and a half decades of subnational data from China's provinces to test the global slack hypothesis. Using tests for non-nested regressions, for many provinces we can reject a Phillips curve with a province-level measure of economic slack against a model with China's national output gap, which is consistent with the hypothesis. We also show that the real exchange rate matters for inflation dynamics in many Chinese provinces, in particular those most open to international trade. In addition to supporting the global slack hypothesis, our results emphasise the importance of cross-border factors for China's inflation developments.
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| 3 |
ID:
178481
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| Summary/Abstract |
Market-oriented housing reforms and the rapid urbanization process have led to spectacular growth in the Chinese real estate sector (RES). However, the changes in the role played by this sector in the structural dynamics of the Chinese economy have not been examined sufficiently. Accordingly, we analyze the intersectoral structural changes to the Chinese RES, its linkages with the rest of the economy, and its growth sources, using four Chinese input–output tables from 2002 to 2017. We depart from existing work on the RES by using the causative matrix approach and structural decomposition analysis, and obtain three main results. First, the RES, which received little non-RES feedback during the 2002–2007 period, has subsequently received much more substantial feedback. Second, the impact of the RES on China's economic growth stems mainly from its forward linkages. Third, the growth in the RES has been driven mainly by domestic demand expansion. Our results highlight that the Chinese RES, which plays a key role in value chains, is highly dependent on its own final demand and a fall in its demand would impede economic development. An important implication of these results is that developing the national economy by stimulating the RES would not be as effective as developing the RES through stimulating the national economy.
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