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| 1 |
ID:
092582
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this paper, we test for asymmetric behaviour of industrial and residential electricity demand for the G7 countries, using the entropy-based test for symmetry suggested by [Racine, J., and Maasoumi, E., 2007. A versatile and robust metric entropy test of time-reversibility, and other hypotheses. Journal of Econometrics 138(2), 547-567; Racine, J., and Maasoumi, E., 2008. A robust entropy-based test of asymmetry for discrete and continuous processes. Econometric Reviews 28, 246-261], the Triples test of [Randles, R., Flinger, M., Policello, G., and Wolfe, D., 1980. An asymptotically distribution-free test for symmetry versus asymmetry. Journal of the American Statistical Association 75, 168-172] and the [Bai, J., and Ng, S., 2001. A consistent test for conditional symmetry in time series models. Journal of Econometrics 103, 225-258] test for conditional symmetry. Using data that spans over three decades, we find overwhelming evidence of conditional symmetry of residential and industrial electricity consumption. This finding implies that the use of econometric tests based on linear data generating processes is credible.
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| 2 |
ID:
093547
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this paper we test the Environment Kuznet's Curve (EKC) hypothesis for 43 developing countries. We suggest examining the EKC hypothesis based on the short- and long-run income elasticities; that is, if the long-run income elasticity is smaller than the short-run income elasticity then it is evident that a country has reduced carbon dioxide emissions as its income has increased. Our empirical analysis based on individual countries suggests that Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Yemen, Qatar, the UAE, Argentina, Mexico, Venezuela, Algeria, Kenya, Nigeria, Congo, Ghana, and South Africa-approximately 35 per cent of the sample-carbon dioxide emissions have fallen over the long run; that is, as these economies have grown emissions have fallen since the long-run income elasticity is smaller than the short-run elasticity. We also examine the EKC hypothesis for panels of countries constructed on the basis of regional location using the panel cointegration and the panel long-run estimation techniques. We find that only for the Middle Eastern and South Asian panels, the income elasticity in the long run is smaller than the short run, implying that carbon dioxide emission has fallen with a rise in income.
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| 3 |
ID:
083228
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2008.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Fiji's total debt stands at 65% of GDP. Domestic debt constitutes 55% of GDP. The goal of this paper is to investigate whether military expenditure has contributed to Fiji's exploding debt levels over the period 1970 to 2005. Our empirical analysis, conducted within a cointegration and vector error-correction framework, suggests that, in the long-run, military expenditure has had a statistically significant positive impact on both external debt and domestic debt, while income has had a statistically significant positive impact on domestic debt and a statistically significant negative impact on external debt. We explain the reasons behind this finding and draw some policy implications.
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| 4 |
ID:
078237
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2007.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The goal of this paper is to examine the nexus between GDP and military expenditure. We model this relationship within a multivariate framework by including exports in the model. We use the recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration and find that there is a long run relationship among the variables when GDP is the endogenous variable. Normalizing on GDP and using four different estimators, we find that in the long run both military expenditure and exports have a positive impact on GDP. Finally, using the Granger causality test, we find that there is evidence for military expenditure Granger causing exports and exports Granger causing GDP, implying that military expenditure indirectly Granger causes GDP in the short run. In the long run, we find that both military expenditure and exports Granger cause GDP for Fiji. Our findings are consistent with the Keynesian school of thought, leading us to derive some policy implications.
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| 5 |
ID:
088047
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines the causal relationship between electricity consumption, exports and gross domestic product (GDP) for a panel of Middle Eastern countries. We find that for the panel as a whole there are statistically significant feedback effects between these variables. A 1 per cent increase in electricity consumption increases GDP by 0.04 per cent, a 1 per cent increase in exports increases GDP by 0.17 per cent and a 1 per cent increase in GDP generates a 0.95 per cent increase in electricity consumption. The policy implications are that for the panel as a whole these countries should invest in electricity infrastructure and step up electricity conservation policies to avoid a reduction in electricity consumption adversely affecting economic growth. Further policy implications are that for the panel as a whole promoting exports, particularly non-oil exports, is a means to promote economic growth and that expansion of exports can be realized without having adverse effects on energy conservation policies.
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| 6 |
ID:
087571
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
While a number of studies examine the nexus between military expenditure and economic growth, little consideration has been give to the effect of military expenditure on external debt. This article examines the impact of military expenditure and income on external debt for a panel of six Middle Eastern countries - Oman, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, Iran, and Jordan - over the period 1988 to 2002. The Middle East represents an interesting study of the effect of military expenditure on external debt because it has one of the highest rates of arms imports in the world and it is one of the most indebted regions in the world. The study first establishes whether there is a long-run relationship between military expenditure, income, and external debt in the six countries using a panel unit root and panel cointegration framework and then proceeds to estimate the long-run and short-run effects of military expenditure and income on external debt. The study finds that external debt is elastic with respect to military expenditure in the long run and inelastic with respect to military expenditure in the short run. For the panel of six Middle Eastern countries, in the long run a 1% increase in military expenditure results in between a 1.1 % and 1.6% increase in external debt, while a 1% increase in income reduces external debt by between 0.6% and 0.8%, depending on the specific estimator employed. In the short run, a 1% increase in military expenditure increases external debt by 0.2%, while the effect of income on external debt is statistically insignificant.
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| 7 |
ID:
086589
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this article we examine several hypotheses relating to output and inflation dynamics in China. The hypotheses tests are based on the exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model of Nelson [Nelson, D. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset return: A new approach, Econometrica, 59, 347-370]. Our findings suggest that Chinese output-inflation behaviour is consistent with the hypothesis that increased inflation uncertainty lowers average inflation; the hypothesis that inflation volatility reduces economic growth and the hypothesis that higher output volatility increases economic growth. However, we find no support for the hypothesis that higher output volatility increases the average inflation rate.
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