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| 1 |
ID:
078978
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| Publication |
2007.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper tests a simple hypothesis: that given the occurrence of war between two countries, the country that is more egalitarian at the moment of military decision is likely to emerge the victor. First, we examine cases where comparative economic inequality can be measured directly, using the nearly comprehensive global datasets of the University of Texas Inequality Project for the years 1963-1999. Second, we examine cases where reasonable inferences about comparative economic inequality may be drawn by analogy to UTIP measurements or from other political and economic evidence, including both bi-national wars and larger wars where there existed clear pair-wise fronts. Third, we discuss selected cases where inferences may be drawn from literary or historical sources. We find, all in all, that the evidence for an egalitarian victory proposition is remarkably strong.
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| 2 |
ID:
078977
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| Publication |
2007.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper extends the analysis of the conflict-trade relationship by introducing foreign direct investment (FDI). We present a formal model that shows why FDI can improve international relations. We then proceed to test the model empirically. Our empirical results show that foreign direct investment plays a similar role to trade in affecting international interactions. More specifically, we find that the flow of FDI has reduced the degree of international conflict and encouraged co-operation between dyads during the period of the late 1980s and the decade of the 1990s. This is an especially important result since one of the main characteristics of globalization has been the reduction of barriers to international capital flows and, as a consequence, the amounts of capital flows have expanded enormously dwarfing those of trade flows. The policy implication of our finding is that further international co-operation in reducing barriers to capital flows can promote a more peaceful world.
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| 3 |
ID:
078976
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2007.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper analyzes factors contributing to terrorism, using its initial meaning from the French Revolution in which the state is the terrorist. The independent economic variables are mineral exports/GDP, military expenditures/GDP, real GDP growth, real per capita GDP, and population density, and the dependent variable is democide, the murder of people by government. Analysis of the data indicates that mineral exports and poor economic performance (both level and growth of income) increase the probability of democides. However, once regime type (democracy) is controlled for, only mineral exports remain statistically robust. Therefore, the control of rents seems to be a major factor contributing to democides
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| 4 |
ID:
078979
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| Publication |
2007.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Classic time-series forecasting models can be divided into exponential smoothing, regression, ARIMA, threshold, and GARCH models. Functional form is investigator-specified, and all methods assume that the data generation process across all segments of the examined time-series is constant. In contrast, the aim of heuristic methods is to automate the discovery of functional form and permit different segments of a time-series to stem from different underlying data generation processes. These methods are categorized into those based on neural networks (NN) and those based on evolutionary computation, the latter further divided into genetic algorithms (GA), evolutionary programming (EP), and genetic programming (GP). However, the duration of the time-series itself is still investigator determined. This paper uses a dynamic forecasting version of GP (DFGP), where even the length of the time-series is automatically discovered. The method is applied to an examination of US GDP that includes military expenditure among its determinants and is compared to a regression-based forecast. We find that DFGP and a regression-based forecast yield comparable results but with the significant proviso that DFGP does not make any prior assumption about functional form or the time-span from which forecasts are produced
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