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ID:
079857
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| Publication |
2007.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The India-Pakistan peace process, technically known as the Composite Dialogue Process (CDP) has sailed through numerous highs and lows in bilateral relations since 1997. It has remained susceptible to unforeseen incidents which have derailed the process several times in the past. However, since 2003 April it has progressed steadily, baring suspension for a while, with support from the highest level. This paper dwells upon the history of the peace process since it inception in 1997 and examines the progress made in the eight baskets of issues namely Jammu and Kashmir (J&K); Siachen; Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project; Sir Creek; Terrorism and Drug Trafficking; Economic and Commercial Cooperation; Peace and Security; and, Promotion of Friendly Exchanges in various fields. The analysis of the peace process in this paper hinges on two key questions. First, has any change in the mindset of both sides come about over the years due to the peace process? And second, what are the prospects of resolving the pending issues in the future talks?
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| 2 |
ID:
079858
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2007.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Some new groups calling themselves Pakistani Taliban with links to the Afghan Taliban have asserted themselves in the tribal areas of Pakistan. This has complicated the internal security scenario for Pakistan. This article traces the roots of the problem and argues that the State with its confessional character emits strong Islamist impulses making it easy for Taliban-like forces to take roots in Pashtun dominated areas in Pakistan. While the process of Talibanisation may not succeed in engulfing the entire state of Pakistan, it will certainly pose a critical internal challenge, contributing to its fragility and compelling Pakistan to stay perennially engaged with its internal security. Roll back is difficult but not impossible. This will involve the strong commitment of the State to take steps to bring about social, economic and political transformation in the Taliban-infested areas, and an effort on the part of the international community to help Pakistan in this critical endeavour.
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| 3 |
ID:
079854
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| Publication |
2007.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article aims to assess the strategic implications of North Korea's nuclear development. It calls into question the conventional wisdom that Pyongyang's atomic weapons will not only undermine the state of deterrence on the Korean peninsula, but also will trigger a nuclear domino effect throughout East Asia. A nuclear-armed North Korea, I argue, still cannot win a major victory over the South and the United States; Pyongyang's bombs somewhat decrease - rather than increase, as many believe - the risk of US preventive attack. And the regional US military presence as well as the available missile defence technology is sufficient to persuade Seoul and Tokyo not to pursue nuclear arsenals for the foreseeable future. While I reject the alarmist view, I find that North Korea's armament nevertheless carries two significant - albeit less grave - risks that have received little scholarly scrutiny. First, I argue that the risk of inadvertent war through pre-emption will increase with Pyongyang's armament. I also argue that the strengthening of US alliances in the region as well as the US development of a missile defence capability in response to the North Korean threat could exacerbate the security dilemmas among major powers. I conclude, however, that these potential dangers do not markedly threaten regional stability
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| 4 |
ID:
079859
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| 5 |
ID:
079855
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| Publication |
2007.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The disorder in Timor-Leste in 2006, the collapse of the Alkatiri government, and the political crisis following the 2007 parliamentary elections have all fuelled speculation that the country is a potential 'failing state'. After outlining the history of the latter concept, this paper examines the Timor-Leste case in relation to the phenomena associated with social and political instability. It has exhibited tensions between the civil regime and the military, apparently deepening ethnic/regional differences, weakness in governance institutions and a dependence upon state office as a means to wealth/power; all of these factors are associated with instability. In addition, some policy choices have fostered particular grievances. Timor-Leste's situation with reference specifically to the comparative literatures on 'state failure' and on 'Africanisation' is then reviewed. State failure literature suggests that regime type and executive recruitment and participation practices are crucial; as a new democracy hitherto dominated by a distinct political faction and facing vital electoral contests, the political system was bound to exhibit turbulence. However, Timor-Leste should be seen in a broader comparative context; accordingly though clearly at risk some caveats should be entered on the prospects for 'failure' of the Timor-Leste state. Timor Leste never having been the site of a fully functioning state, its politics more resemble Melanesia than Africa
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| 6 |
ID:
079856
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