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ID: 138899

Growth slowdown in China since 2008: will there be a hard landing in the near future? / Lai, Pingyao

Lai, Pingyao	Article
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Summary/Abstract

China has witnessed an unprecedented great leap forward in investment since the 2008 global financial crisis, and at the same time real GDP growth has undergone a significant slowdown. This paper examines China's growth slowdown since 2008 up to 2013 using a growth accounting model in a systematic way. It is found that China's growth slowdown since 2008 almost completely comes from a sharp slowdown in total factor productivity growth. During this period, the positive effect on growth from expanding investment has been completely offset by the negative effect of the slowdown in total factor productivity growth. Currently, China's economy has slid into the Solow downward path. Under these circumstances, a soft landing is completely infeasible. Unless the Chinese Government implements substantial rebalancing and comprehensive and in-depth market-oriented reform, accompanied by large-scale de-investment (decreasing in the ratio of investment in GDP) and massive employment adjustment, China will be unable to avoid the Solow downward path, and a hard landing in investment will be inevitable in the near future.

Key Words

China ; Total Factor Productivity ; Growth Accounting ; Expanding Investment ; Hard Landing ; Soft Landing

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ID: 081748

Role of productivity in China's growth: new estimates / Wu, Yanrui

Wu, Yanrui	Journal Article
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2008.

Summary/Abstract

The impressive growth of the Chinese economy in the past three decades has attracted a lot of attention and hence the research interest of many scholars and policy makers. One of the focuses in the literature is the role of productivity in China's economic growth. This paper aims to revisit the debate about the role of productivity in China's growth, to provide an updated estimate of productivity growth and hence to make a contribution to the understanding of China's economic growth in recent years. Its objective is to propose and apply a growth accounting technique to assess economic performance in China, in particular the role of technological progress in China's recent growth. The findings about the latter may have important policy implications for the sustainability of China's economic growth in the future

Key Words

Total Factor Productivity ; Growth Accounting ; China's Economic Growth

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